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Good day subscribers and welcome into the financial education channel if you’re new here i am jeremy and today i want to talk with you guys on why i potentially see the stock market struggling quite a bit for the rest of the month of april we have about three full trading weeks left in the stock market for the month of april and there are five different reasons why
I see actually the stock market potentially struggling quite a bit that are some negatives for the stock market at least in the short term that i want to discuss with you guys and kind of like my frame of thought around this and then at the end of the video i’m going to share with you will i be doing something different in the month of april will i be selling off
Stocks have already sold off stocks will i be buying stocks more heavily any of those type of things so hope you guys kind of enjoy this video i hope you get a lot of value out of it smash that thumbs up button alright so reason number one on why i see the stock market potentially struggling quite a bit for the remainder of the month of april it’s basically buybacks
Are are basically are gonna go into what’s called a blackout period okay so what you have essentially is you have massive amounts of public companies buying back their shares pretty much constantly however once earnings come okay which everybody is kind of getting into their earnings now or getting very close once you get into the close time you basically have a
Blackout period where you cannot do your share buybacks essentially so all these companies that are are you know buying tens of millions hundreds of millions or even billions of dollars of their own stock back which is obviously helped because you have a massive buyer in the market sometimes it for some of these stocks the biggest buyer in the market is literally
Their own company buying back the shares okay but essentially you’re gonna have a blackout carry for almost all the public companies for the remainder of the month of april so that creates a situation where all these big buyers basically are not in the market which are spending like i said you know tens of millions hundreds and millions or even billions of dollars
Literally each month buying back their shares okay so you have to the lack out period neth not a good thing for the stock market alright also the first quarter 1q was amazing okay listen first halfway 1q was amazing okay this was the strongest first quarter in terms of stock market performance since i believe it was 1998 okay we’re talking like over two decades here
The first quarter of 2019 here was a no generally when you have that unbelievable of a quarter you also you know the next quarter usually tends to either be very weak or i should be a negative quarter because usually just don’t put two amazing straight quarters like that like literally it was the best quarter for the stock market literally since like 1998 okay so
Usually you don’t just come with another quarter of just unbelievable growth to the sky that’s not usually how it works so being that one 1q was so amazing that that’s not exactly the best thing at least going into the future quarter okay usually if anything you like it to be like what happened in 4q where for q was a disaster for the stock market right for q you
Know october november to december 2018 or a complete disaster if anything you kind of look at that next quarter is like there’s some potential there okay so what q was amazing that usually bodes not the best for the next quarter all right also reason number three is earning these are coming out okay earnings are all gonna be coming out more likely or most public
Companies gonna be reporting for the remainder of april you know the week coming up the following week in the following week eighty percent plus of public companies will be reporting their earnings and here’s what we’re looking at with earnings we have a lot of weakness on the international market and we did have definitely some slowdown in the domestic market
In the united states as well now obviously is not the best situation for earnings now can some companies still beat earnings absolutely but i’m looking and i’m thomas there’s probably gonna be a significant amount of companies that barely meet earnings or actually miss earnings and that’s never a good look especially when you’re coming off of amazing stock market
Performance then you’re kind of almost expecting amazing earnings some company zwo will have amazing earnings i’m not sure most companies are gonna have it also on top of that this past quarter okay which the last time most companies reported was january and into the beginning part of february when most companies report it out there i saw most stocks actually move
Up dramatically on the earnings i saw stock after stock this past earnings season move up 5% 10% 15% on their earnings days when you’re coming off that strong of a period in terms of stock market performance for a lot of these stocks that makes it really tough for that next earnings period because then if you’re going to get another five ten fifteen percent gain
Out of mostly stocks these earnings need to be amazing i’m sure i’m just not convinced most company’s going to be reporting amazing earnings in this next upcoming quarter thinks some will the select few and the rest are going to barely meet or actually miss the earnings okay so that obviously makes it another tough thing for the month of april alright reason
Number four why i think the rest of april is going to be tough is basically a lot of the good is already priced in okay like i said we had an amazing 1q what this basically did is this priced in a lot of good news so let’s say we get a trade deal between the china and us let’s say we get that in the back half of april right i’m not even sure that would help the
Market that dramatically because i think a lot of that has already been priced in – a lot of stocks in the market or the stock market in general so when i just kind of look at it i’m saying there’s a quite a bit that’s already priced in here on a short-term basis so if you’re thinking you know let’s say a trade deal gets done between the us and china and april
If you’re thinking oh my gosh the stock market’s going to go shoot up a thousand points a two thousand points whenever that news comes out i’m just not sure about that because i think a lot of folks are expecting that to happen i think a lot of investment fund managers are expecting that to happen in hedge fund managers so i think that’s already kind of in price
In the market i think if anything bad happened in terms of there wasn’t a trade deal to get done at the end of april and it was like oh no you know the tariffs are moving up that could be an ugly situation with a stock market because i think very few people are expecting that most people are expecting those trade deal to get done and you know they’ve already kind
Of praised that in a lot of these stocks are in the market in general okay that’s kind of reason number four and reason number five this is a very interesting one so i think home sales for basically the month of april in kind of what comes out there and into the springtime home sales are going to be very strong in in the united states okay i think they’re gonna
Probably be up nice year-over-year i think they’re going to be deep most analyst expectations i think homes i think the spring season is gonna be an amazing season for home sales alright now why is this mainly because obviously the jobs mark is good right now and number two because interest rates have fallen dramatically i think a lot of people are saying okay now
We can go ahead and take advantage of these interest rates alright now here’s where this is a bad thing because here’s what’s going to happen if home sales are really strong and then you got strong employment guess what people are going to start talking about oh the fed knee to raise rates oh the feds should raise rates and the stock market doesn’t want that of
The fed to raise rates right the fed they had announced they might raise rates like three times in 2019 now they’re talking about not at all and so if folks in home sales come out strong and you have a strong employment picture the fed is gonna say hey you know what maybe we should revisit possibly raising rates in 2019 that scares a stock market obviously that’s a
Very negative thing at least from the stock market price perspective and a lot of these fund managers are so scared if that if the fed raises rates a quarter percent half a percent what’s gonna happen so needless to say that’s why i think you just have a lot of negatives kind of going for the market right now at least for the back half of april and maybe even into
Part of may okay the course is well i do anything different in the month of april am i gonna sell off stocks have i sold off stocks will they be buying more heavily or anything like that and the answer is absolutely not april is gonna be just normal month for me in terms of you know buying or selling or any of those sorts of things i try to always make decisions
Based upon where valuations are at with you know individual stocks and things like that just because i think it might be a you know a struggle in the back half of april it doesn’t mean i’m gonna go ahead and say oh my gosh let me sell all my stocks because this also could not happen okay and i don’t have a crystal ball so i don’t know for sure if the stock market
Will go down in the month of april or into may or anything like that i’m just looking at and i said there’s definitely a lot of negatives but it’s nothing that makes me say oh i got to go sell all my facebook stock oh my gosh i gotta sell my elf stocks i gotta go so you know skyworks solutions and all these great companies i own i’m not gonna go ahead and sell all
Those talks just because you know something might happen that’s gonna be negative for the market i just look at it as hey you know what the market does struggle and the market does go down with say 5% move 10% move down in the back half of april or into may or something like that great that opens up some buying opportunities because i haven’t been buying many
Stocks at all the past month or so because the stock market’s just flown up valuations have got a lot richer i’m not nearly as interesting as a buyer at this point in time so you know i’m kind of hoping like the markets goes down a bit in april in into may and maybe and even into the summer you know there’s a good old sellin main go away type thing i hope you know
We kind of you know have some weakness going into summer and whatnot because i would love to start buying some stocks heavily again there’s just not a lot of stocks right now that i’m looking at i’m like that’s a great deal we know for instance last month or you know in the month of march i only had one stock that was on three stocks i’m buying last month i only
Had two stocks so that kind of shows you that there are not that many good deals in my opinion just going out there right now so that’s why the stock part you could struggle in the back half of april and maybe even moving into may just wanted to kind of share you guys with you guys my frame of thought there thank you for watching and have a great day by the way
I just want to say something real quick here at the end if you’re one of those people is thinking oh man the stock market’s gonna go down that’s so bad or something like that you shouldn’t really be thinking about that especially if you’re young if anything you should be rooting for the stock market to go down in the short-term so you can buy a lot more shares a
Lot cheaper i never understand this mentality special especially from young people that might have a few hundred bucks or a few thousand bucks in the market they’re like oh my gosh i need the stock market to go up no guys you’re like you should always be rooting at least in the short term for stocks to go down so you can add two positions heavily and then go ahead
And hopefully sell them out when the stock market goes up over time so just wanted to point that out especially for a lot of you who young guys out there anyways have a great day guys
Transcribed from video
Why Stock Market May Struggle For Next 30 Days By Financial Education
