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What a complete disaster folks oh my gosh the market is a mess i’m explaining to you exactly what’s going on here why the market is crashing it’s the worst day for many of the indexes since uh 2020 march of 2020 this is awful i want to explain you exactly what’s going on what’s going to transpire here what i’m doing about this these sorts of things um it’s bad bad
And um you know a lot of folks just haven’t seen these sorts of days before after you’ve already gotten some devastating days i mean i went to bed super late last night i was listening to conference calls like past 3 a.m and i thought it was going to be a pretty boring day in the market i was looking at futures futures were down but they were like barely down so
I thought i would wake up and it would kind of be kind of a sleepy day in the market right and um no just know uh nasdaq has been approaching like a five percent downward move for the nasdaq um on this on a year-to-date basis is now down almost 28 on a year-to-date basis absolutely incredible fall the russell down about four percent here a day the russell’s off
Of about 30 percent off of its highs it reached in november year to date it’s off over 22 the s p 500 is down over 18 percent year to date so far and that one just continues to fall as well and then obviously the dow was having an awful day the dow is down over 1200 points today just absolutely getting destroyed okay you look at the big tech awful i mean amazon’s
Down amazon’s the worst of big tech okay now this makes sense because what i’m going to share with you a little later on in this video it makes sense that amazon is the worst stock of the bunch here today okay but you’re looking at amazon that’s a multi multi-year low for amazon here today you know no one wants to own anything in this market and i mean absolutely
Anything anymore at this point in time people want out of everything okay tesla seven and a half percent down today this one i think it hit 600 something at one point in the trading day today netflix down seven percent i think that one’s at a new multi multi-year low nvidia seven percent we still got to get nvidia earnings nvidia is the last big impactful company
To report earnings this earnings season that i can remember um and they’re reporting basically this upcoming week okay that’s that’s it amd back down to 95 bucks um apple down huge day six percent downward move apple if i recall hit a 130 something we haven’t seen apple hit a 130 in quite some time um you know that one could easily continue to fall imagine imagine
If apple just had one bad number in their next earnings report my gosh that baby’s going down like a rock right and to it down five percent obviously just meta all these stocks just getting absolutely decimated here today this matters this matters in a major way okay so housing stocks all basically right back down to 52-week lows here today right home depot after
Their good earnings investors don’t care that stocks down six percent today after what this is the thing when you’re in this vicious of a market even if you even if you perform and you as a management team come in with those good earnings right which everybody looked at the home depot orders and they were very impressed like good job home depot no one cares
Even if you come in with the great numbers no one cares it’s just down down down it’s sell sell sell it doesn’t matter how well you’re executing your business model right and i look at this list here a day and one that stands out more than any is rh no one wants to hold any retailer now at this point in time this stock’s down over 12 here today um rh my gosh the
Fall has been rapid this is a stock that is now approaching where it was prior to rona it’s basically lost all those gains in a really good housing market and when it comes to rh you know i’ll be honest this is a company i’m actually personally interested in investing in but i gotta say with rh i don’t know where the bottom is for that stock and that’s why i’m
Not stepping into that stock yet even though it’s at multi-year lows i’m actually not stepping in yet because i don’t know i mean could i see rh at 130 or 150 a share i could unfortunately and so you know that’s one that i’m like the fall could still be so dramatic that i’m like i’m not even willing to step in that especially when there’s so many other stocks
That are so discounted right now that i think might even have you know more attractive risk rewards when i think about an rh and i think about uh you know the realistic possibility of a slowdown in the back half of this year in real estate and into 23 i look at a stock that i’m just like i don’t know when they could report down quarters year over year over year
For like a year straight or two years straight right and so that’s why with a stock like that i’m like i’m not even ready to step in that yet oh look at a rocket rkt actually i felt like rocket i can’t buy that stock yet mortgage doesn’t refinances give me a break that business is dead that business is dead for at least a year or two maybe in three years it comes
Back and so these sorts of stocks who wants to own those right now right you know eventually if if rh falls to 100 something dollars a share especially if it falls to low 100s that might be the moment i start to step in the stock and say you know what as a long-term play i like rh is rh probably going to be a 500 plus dollar stock again in the future i think so
I think so but could rh have some bad years ahead of itself it could could the next 18 to 24 months be bad for rh uh yeah there’s a high probability especially with how messed up supply chains are then if you talk you add a housing slowdown on top of that oh gosh man you know that’s no plan right you look at kathy wood today you know everything’s just down down
Down you know it was starting to bounce back and then just back down again you know the only good news is not to the 30s as far as the main arc fund it’s at least in 40 something but i mean shoot at this pace tomorrow it could be back down to the 30s i mean just absolute devastation right so if you want to know the main reason why the market’s down huge’s target but
Let me tell you why this is so much bigger so much bigger than just a target story okay so when it comes to target their revenue was fine you looked at their revenue numbers there’s nothing bad there okay but what happened with target is they had a massive eps miss and i mean massive now what essentially is going to have to happen here now is analysts are going
To have to take their entire full year numbers and adjust those full year numbers now at this point okay they’re gonna have to take their their all their 2022 numbers and basically adjust those and bring those down massively they’re going to have to bring down next quarters numbers the the following quarters numbers the following quarters numbers the overall year
Numbers and they might even have to bring down now 2023 numbers because the eps miss was so bad and it was so dramatically bad that a lot of people are like oh gosh now why this matters so much okay there’s a lot of different reasons why this matters so much and why this single-handedly is just tanking the market through the floor target is respected as the most
Well-run retailer in the world when it comes to big box they took that title away from walmart a couple years ago this is there’s no one that’s more well run than than target right and so if this company comes in and misses eps by a mile then people say well what about the businesses that aren’t as well run as a target because that’s the creme de la creme target
Is the creme de la creme in retail there’s no one that runs their business better and so people watched walmart come in with that disastrous 32 climbing inventory that you know the the former ceo of walmart said that was apocalyptic that was his words there was an apocalyptic number he said the former ceo of walmart right so you have that come in and then you have
Target report these numbers and people are like dude you can’t own anything in this market you can’t trust any company in this market when a company like target misses eps by a mile when a company like walmart has inventory climbed 32 percent the market is uninvestable is what they’ll say and that’s why it’s it’s it’s wall street is selling anything they can today
At any price because they are like this market’s uninvestable we can’t trust anything because if target comes in with that number in walmart these are the most well-run companies in the world it’s one thing if shopify misses eps by a mile it’s one thing if netflix misses eps by mile walmart and target they serve one purpose to make it the money okay to make it the
Money on the bottom line they’re not there for to be revenue companies they’re there to be profit machines and if they can’t be profit machines we’ve got a massive colossal issue in the market here in 2022 on our hands right where people are like oh gosh okay this is why everything just sells off today now it’s interesting nasdaq still sells off the worst you
Know you think with with target coming with that disastrous number it would the dow in the s p would be the worst right but it’s not and just wait oil and gas stocks are going to start falling i can almost guarantee that back half of this summer you know if you think oil price is going to stay elevated now that ain’t happening um especially with more and more
Worries about the economy oil prices will start coming down in the back half of this summer and um that’s the next that’s the next leg to fall now we’ve gotten the retailers to fall we’ve got big tech those babies are next it’s it’s you know by the end of it it’s like you guys ever seen that that um that mean before where it’s the grim reaper and he’s like knocking
On door by door and it’s like started with like the spec stocks and meme stocks and it was like small caps then it was like mid caps then it was large caps then it was big tech now it’s even retailers like walmart and target next up oil and gas stocks come open your door okay it’s the energy it’s energy prices uh that’ll be the next stage to get hit okay now this
Goes way deeper than target way deeper than targeting way deeper than the stock market this goes to the economy okay the biggest cost to a retailer you know is labor right like labor you know one thing is your rent as a retailer right and let’s say if target doesn’t own their actual store they got to pay rent for that and that’s expensive but it’s not as expensive
As all those workers right all those people around the registers and all those people trying to fill the shelves and all those people in the back room and all the managers trying to run the store that’s where the that’s where the real cost is right and especially when it comes to like full-time employees right and so if you’re looking at a at a company like a
Target right and their biggest cost is uh you know staff well guess what they have to start to do they have to start to cut staff now they could cut staff on the corporate level like maybe they have too many positions there right because they’re not hitting profitability targets and if you’re not hitting profitability targets and you’re a company like target you
Have to cut you have to cut that’s the bottom line you can’t just sit there as a management team an executive team be like oh we’re just going to keep doing what we’re doing no you have to start cutting so they’re going to cut staff and if you don’t cut staff you’re going to start cutting hours because a lot of targets employee force essentially is hourly right
So let’s imagine you’re you know the 20 year old that works at target and and you get 35 hours a week right now right and you’re full time because if you usually work over 30 hours or consider full-time so you get your health insurance paid for and all those sorts of things well here’s the deal if you know the if the company has to cut your hours is going to get
Cut from 35 down to 25 or 20 which means you are no longer a full-time employee which means you no longer get those benefits of being a full-time employee and if that happens for a long enough period of time sometimes it’s like three months six months depending on the situation you’re no longer considered full-time you’re now a part-time employee right and you
Can keep asking for all the hours all you want but if the company doesn’t have those hours it is what it is and that’s somebody that worked in that workforce for many many years of retail and hourly and you got to understand when times are tough these retailers they want to push people to part time and if they do any higher and they’ll hire part-time because you
Don’t have to have all the the essentially benefits that go along with being a full-time employee so the cost of having somebody that’s working 35 hours a week or over 30 that’s called in less than 30 it’s a huge substantial difference for that actual retailer and for the profitability of that company so corporate starts saying we don’t want full-time employees we
Want we want part-time get us people that are going to work 15 to 25 hours a week we want those part-time people we don’t want full-time and they start cutting costs now if you’re the the 20 year old now you’re making less money and now what are you doing for health insurance you’re gonna have to be on maybe government health insurance are you gonna have to pay for
That out of pocket everybody’s seeing how expensive health insurance is good luck paying out out of pocket on a on an hourly basis for somebody like a target right and so this ends up happening and then on top of that they start downsizing well that was upsizing they start downsizing positions okay and so this was something i witnessed at walgreens essentially back
When i used to work at walgreens i started at walgreens in 2009 and uh i started there and i was making like 8.25 cents an hour and i wanted to move up the ranks obviously at walgreens well at walgreens they started basically getting rid of like assistant managers for instance and what it used to be is you had a store manager then you had two to three assistant
Managers at a store and then you had some some folks that kind of worked a little under them right and what they ended up doing over time is they got rid of the assistant manager position at almost all the stores and they put in some new position that was way lower paid than uh assistant manager and so that’s that’s what led me to leave from walgreens to go to
Quick trip in 2010 because they didn’t have that position that you know i was looking for essentially and so i i got the job at quick trip making you know 40k a year and that that opportunity just wasn’t there at walgreens right and so this is what ends up happening and so those people that you know want to try to come up and make some more money and especially
With inflation slicing and dicing people right now those positions could very well shortly go away and all of a sudden you don’t have anything to climb up there and like grab a new position because that position has been eliminated and the people that are in the other positions especially if if things get rough they’re not looking to move jobs they’re gonna they’re
Gonna cling onto that job all they can as somebody that once again came up you know working in the great recession 2008 2009 2010 people don’t leave their jobs if times are getting hard they just don’t they don’t go anywhere they hold on that job for everything they possibly can and unless they get fired they ain’t leaving okay and so in recent years we’ve had
A lot of movement in jobs where people are leaving their jobs and going to find new positions and things like that i can tell you in a recession that ain’t happening people cling on to that job like they’re clinging on for their life because there is no other opportunity at that time or if there’s an another opportunity it’s a huge risk and they’re like i’m not
Willing to take that risk i got this job right now it’s fine i you know i ain’t going nowhere and i can tell you the movement i saw when like for instance i was at walgreens back in the day there was no movement the store managers stayed the store managers there was nobody retiring there was nobody leaving to go get another job somewhere that that was non-existent
Everybody clung onto whatever they could get a hold of that at that time that’s what happens in a recession okay because those opportunities just aren’t out there and so this is a situation that once again it goes way deeper than target it gets into the economy and if you start talking about these companies are missing on profitability left and right hours have
To start being cut positions have to start being cut unemployment starts to climb that’s what ends up happening okay i covered this in the video late last night i don’t know if you guys watched that video if you didn’t watch that video go watch that video right now i go into exactly how this is all going to play out and why i think over the next 6-12 months there’s
Going to be actually a lot of jobs loss a lot of jobs lost i don’t want to predict it’s going to be anything like it was in uh the 0809 situation where unemployment went to 10 plus if i recall i don’t want to predict that but i’m telling you over the next 6-12 months there’s going to be a lot of jobs to be lost and i go through exactly in detail how i see all that
Playing out in that video and it’s an ugly situation it’s not good as far as the stock market goes it’s a disaster it’s a complete disaster because no one wants to hold anything no if target and walmart are missing numbers like this people don’t trust anything people don’t trust wall and when i say people i’m talking about wall street wall street doesn’t trust
A number from anybody right now they say if walmart and target are missing numbers like this who’s to say apple’s not going to miss and microsoft’s not going to miss and that’s not going to miss and they just don’t want to hold anything right now now as far as me i stick to the game plan but this has been a year where i’m just accumulating stocks accumulating
Stocks i’m fully focused on that and that’s what i’m going to continue to be fully focused on and however much the market pushes down is how much the market pushes down i’m just going to i’m just going to stay focused on what i got to stay focused on buying stocks and that’s about it but i can tell you it’s not good it’s not good at all uh if for the short term
For the market just bottom line with these misses how bad it is wall street doesn’t want to own a thing right now and i mean a thing eventually it’ll end but right now it’s bad bad much love as always guys hope you enjoyed this follow me on instagram it’ll be maybe pin comment down there say hello to me send me a dm and have a great day
Transcribed from video
What a Disaster | Why The Stock Market Just Collapsed By Financial Education
