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Oh honey there folks and welcome into today’s video so we’re going to take a look at the markets what’s going on a lot of pain out there today but mainly i want to react in this video to this article here essentially out of cnbc so uh veteran investment strategist david roche says we are entering a war session not a recession a war session so i want to read
Through that with you guys and kind of give my two cents on this um i think it’s an interesting kind of take i’ve never heard the expression war session before so uh we’ll kind of get into that but yeah at the start here i want to take a look at the market stocks things like that as always thank you ftx for being my official crypto partner if you guys want to
Set up an account go through my pin comment and ask your referral code enter holy smokers for all that and actually get a free coin with your first ten dollars of a trading activity there okay so uh market’s obviously rough here today hong kong market was down three percent nasdaq ended up down over two percent another tough day for the nasdaq uh i mean shoot
You get another week or two with this weak action the nasdaq we’ll be back to literally um you know multi-year lows for the nasdaq essentially when the nasdaq was really getting hammered there i think we bottomed out it was around 12 8 12 9 somewhere around there so shoot i mean you get a few more of these days these 300 point drops and we’ll be there it’ll be
A snap of fingers right the s p 500 got destroyed today one point about a 1.7 percent move there not even any massive news silver up today which is interesting i just started buying silver recently uh i might add more and more to a silver position if you go back um you know i mean i don’t want to talk too much about this yet but if you go back to the 70s and 80s
And pull up a gold chart or a silver chart it was an interesting time period okay that’s all i’ll say about that uh vix was up quite a bit today about a 15 move in the vix there uh if we look at something like a voyager down six percent tesla was down almost five percent here a day year to date it’s down about 18 percent tesla it was interesting you know we we had
That exciting you know obviously the the austin gigafactory day right and the stock kind of moved up nicely into that along with obviously moving up in in terms of the market in general off those march 14th lows and now here we are with um you know basically the stock since then has just been kind of down and out so that’s unfortunate right uh chef’s down three
Percent uh chef right around all time lows getting pretty darn close like very very close to all-time lows planet had a tough day here today facebook had a tough day 2.6 i mean everyone’s just had an awful year down 36 this year for a stock like that a cash flow machine a low pe name just incredible paypal back under 110 again that one’s another one that’s just
Had a horrible year so far 43 year-to-date that’s just awful and it’s a great business model it’s a cash flow machine not a like an insanely high valuation nothing like that right and um you know you see stocks even like that selling off so dang hard in this market honest didn’t really do too much today you did have a few green stocks out there at least as far as
Stocks i own stc was green here today foot locker was green dropbox green beyond meat green uh nordstrom corsair gaming tapestry and oatly were all green but you know there wasn’t a ton of green out there if we pull up some of my other ones let’s look at the banks today so banks all pretty much finished red except for wells fargo deutsche bank down 6.4 percent for
Deutsche uh not a good day uh obviously for deutsche bank there big tech stocks if you look it’s it’s a lot of the higher growth other than shopify randomly just being up two percent uh but look at nvidia down over five percent today obviously we just spoke about tesla down almost five percent microsoft mr softy got hit today guys um you know that’s one’s been one
Of the few that’s been holding up really strong in this market and now it started getting him or microsoft down about four percent today and you look at this stock it’s now almost 15 year-to-date now so obviously four percent of that coming today amd stock getting into some trouble now uh down 35 percent year-to-date amd stock right yeah that’s the thing i think a
Lot of people uh you know if you don’t aren’t super into the stock market a lot of people think it’s just a risky stocks or just crazy valuation or crazy growth stocks and you start looking at some of these and you’re like there’s a lot of damage and a lot more than just those sorts of stocks right google mcdougall down 10 year to date apple’s been holding really
Really strong only down 9 your date now usually that would be bad but in a market where countless stocks are down twenty thirty forty percent your date uh nine percent you’ll take it right uh mr amazon down about nine percent your date obviously we spoke about facebook had a tough day today adobe netflix down two point two percent their next one up kathy wood stocks
Uh as far as her big you know some of her biggest positions so arc was down one point three percent back under sixty dollars tesla obviously if tesla’s down big that’s gonna hurt the arc fund big time coinbase is a massive position for now in the ark fund down 4.3 percent today coin by the way down almost 39 percent year a day just awful teledog can’t do anything
Right essentially that one was already getting hammered going into this year so it’s only down 28 percent year-to-date uh obviously zoom was down here a day and pretty much all our other big positions this is like pretty much our top 10 biggest positions in the arc fund i just keep it there real easy if you want to kathywoodstocks.com that’s way you can track
Her top 25 positions on a daily basis and see exactly what she’s making for moves there uh chinese stocks kind of a mixed bag there baba you know baba’s kind of been on a comeback recently but you know it could give up those gains you know there’s some good news in relation to china being more open to letting u.s firms really audit these companies which i think is
Important it was an interesting day in housing stocks i was looking at this i’m like what what like like housing stocks were all green but you know sometimes you can get a group to move you know green on a random day like this i just thought that was strange that all the housing stocks moved green on a very red day in the market here today rockets now down to under
10 dollars under 10 bucks now for rocket that one’s down 33 percent year a day just you can’t do anything right right now but yeah almost seems like a trick when you see when you see all the housing stocks up on a day like today almost seems like a trick right if we look at plant-based stocks kind of a mixed bag here for for plant-based stocks here today the retail
Trader investor stocks if we go ahead and pull up this you know it wasn’t that that bad for for some of these stocks like draftkings was actually green amc was green today wish was green hood was green fubo was green obviously you got some red some it wasn’t um it wasn’t total devastation retail trader investor stocks which i thought was just kind of interesting
The my stocks i’m watching um but haven’t bought yet list as far as that goes you know not no you you’re looking at this and it’s like not some huge moves down especially on a day when the nasdaq was down what 2.2 or so so it just kind of is more telling let’s check out travel stocks look at this some of the travel stocks are green and i think it’s going to be
Regardless of whatever is going on in the world travel is going to be red hot this summer i can promise you that okay i mean red hot but it’s just interesting that markets have such a big downward move but you can clearly see difference that’s why i like to break apart my watch list by different you know watch list because you can clearly see why the market was
Down so much today it was big tech that’s what drove this whole market down it actually wasn’t retail trader investor type stocks or smaller market caps none of that moved to the market it was all these big dogs here today all these five percent four percent three percent two percent type moves these things have the biggest weight when it comes to s p 500 and the
Nasdaq 100 as well and and the dow as well so that’s what’s going to be what moves the market and clearly it’s a risk off day in the market here today where folks just don’t want to take any risk in the market and a lot of folks been asking me like when when does a market go back risk on like for real for real right not like a you know a little play around thing
But when does the market go you know really risk on that’s a whole subject i’m gonna have to talk in a video about um i have some perspective on that on when i think the market will go risk on and you know these stocks will actually start moving up but um you know you it’s kind of a little waiting game and i’ll probably dive into that that’s a really really deep
Subject there already guys so let’s let’s listen to this or let’s let’s you know not listen let’s go ahead and you know read this article here the global economy is likely entering a war session according to veteran investment strategist david roche and the markets are underestimating its duration he says okay it comes as a market’s attempt to navigate a flurry of
Concurrent economic hurdles including the russia invasion of ukraine soaring inflation rising interest rates and supply disruption from china’s efforts to contain the new rona outbreak which is like uh where are we over with that like i thought this was like the year we were gonna like get over that then here we are with this still going on in china and shutdowns
And this is affecting negatively tesla even you know we pulled the tesla you know their their factories are closed right now over there in shanghai you know that could cause them to potentially miss next quarter’s numbers you know all this stuff matters at the end of the day especially if you’re talking about short-term stock prices is this type of stuff that
Could hurt companies quite significantly i even heard about some cities are complaining about they don’t have enough vegetables in china like that’s just a whole other situation okay speaking of cnbc’s squawk box europe on friday roche president of independent strategy suggested that evidence of atrocities committed against civilians in ukraine by russian forces
Will prevent any possibility of a swift peace negotiation with russian president putin okay as such the west’s only option is to seek regime change in russia oh boy that’s gonna be difficult he said given that putin cannot be seen domestically to withdraw from ukraine without a quote-unquote victory right they could still do certain things that could make it look
Like a victory but anyways he’s not going to trade withdrawal for any ratcheting down of sanctions so the sanctions stay in place and i think the implications for europe are that you will see recession because the sanctions will actually increase and move toward a total energy blockade rosh said eu countries last week agreed to a suite of new sanctions on russia
In light of reported cases of uh you know a lot of stuff in regards to civilians potentially over there including a full embargo on russia coal imports right in a time of mass global inflation that’s going on um you know this stuff only makes it worse it’s just the bottom line like it only makes it worse in the short term no doubt about it all right now a rocket
Attack on a crowded train station in eastern ukraine city on friday basically killed a lot of people it comes after russian forces switched to assault on eastern ukraine following their withdrawal from towns around the capital of kiev ukrainian officials have warned further atrocities are likely to be uncovered in towns recaptured from retreating russian soldiers
And roche argued that investors will no longer be able to separate politics from markets which is something i obviously hate like i hate politics i hate uh all this geo political type stuff i’m like uh come on man can we just get back to earnings and stuff like that but we’re in that um we’re in this sort of market that where this stuff is so forefront right now
Right there’s enormous supply side shock that will continue in food in energy in metals and i can go on there will this will go on for a while at the same time we’re dealing with inflation worldwide we’re dealing with it rising interest rates i think the 30-year treasury yield will be at least 3.5 percent in a year’s time he says okay the 30-year and we’re looking
At of course supply disruptions in china due to what’s happening with rona which people are not talking about i mean i think people are talking about it but maybe not as much as this gentleman would like uh but which are obviously another supplies aside uh challenge to the entire global system right absolutely it just messes up supply chains even more and uh china
Has this insane in my opinion insane stance on rona where they just want to try to have like zero cases and it’s like dude come on give give it up china but whatever you know it’s it is what it is i don’t run that country it’s just you know when you deal with the you know other countries there’s a lot that’s out of your control right war session roach suggests that
This will be too much for the stock market to overcome in order to continue to grind higher and argue that historically high inflation will not fall off as economic growth slows as would order narrowly be the case in a normal recession in a normal recession output and demand go down inflation goes down as well okay in this sort of recession a war session you can
Actually have output which falls at the same time as costs and inflation rise oh boy that would not be there’d be no blam okay you’re seeing that in the mismatch in the labor market you’re seeing that in the price of commodities and i think that will continue to push through so you’re faced with a very strange situation where central banks have to choose between
Their inflation target and growth investors have been closing monitoring central banks comments to assess the likely pace of monetary policy tightening as policymakers try to contain inflation but rose suggests that any talk of policy rates going over the hump in the coming years is premature he says when the pain does become extreme on output and performance
Growth side of the economy of course they will slip back but i think it’s going to take a lot longer to happen to the equity markets assume than the equity and markets assume okay so yeah not a not a great situation right and obviously i think though the market’s looking at a lot of this because you just can’t get anyone to take risk in this market right now
Right there’s out i mean i look at the stock market i see a place of people want to take no risk right now no risk i mean zero risk and you know it was one thing when uh you know in in kind of mid 2021 when a lot of the meme stocks and the hype stocks and and a lot of the retail crowd stocks when those were selling off right there was one thing and it was like
Okay people don’t want to take risk into those sorts of stocks anymore more those are all dropping like flies right but there was another thing when all of a sudden in the toward the end of 2021 right especially in the fall time and going into december when you start to see a lot of companies that actually have great long-term business models and they’re not just
Some meme stock or something like that they have great long-term business models in front of themselves with incredible revenue growth opportunities in industries that are growing massively over the coming years right and you saw a lot of those stocks falling i was like okay wait now it’s not just some mean stops now it’s all these stocks as well and then you fast
Forward into the beginning part here of 2021 when you’ve seen almost everything fall right it’s not just even those stocks then it started even being the cash flow beast companies like a meta with you know unbelievable profitability follow the lowest valuations we’ve pretty much ever seen on on pe metrics and everything right if you look at something like netflix
Netflix trainer ps we’ve never seen that before right look at companies like paypal companies like square right you start looking at even a lot of massive companies that are seen as safety stocks that have incredible balance sheets cash loads to sky low p’s low price to sales ratios trading at lowest valuations in like years and years and years if not ever and you’ve
Seen those stocks fall you’re even starting to see now microsoft look at microsoft here today we just looked at that one look at even apple year today look at google mcdougall year to date even you start to have some of those companies now starting to fall apart a lot of those companies are now down double digits and we don’t know if there’s an end in sight right
What if they reported a troubling quarter those stocks could easily go down even more and keep in mind if you’re really thinking about like the entire market really getting hitting in terms of like s p 500 the nasdaq and things like that the last shoe to fall that would be if apple doesn’t quite hit some numbers this upcoming earnings or microsoft doesn’t quite
Hit some or some some numbers or they got some worrying commentary right some of those companies report it more toward the beginning of february and some folks look at uh you know things have gotten worse since then as as we went throughout march and that’s that’s a whole other debate we’ll see but i can tell you a lot of those companies have been kind of like
The ones holding this whole show up and making the s p 500 and the dow look better than it really is right now oil and gas stocks have been holding pretty darn strong but does that continue on a lot of that’s dependent upon uh you know this kind of hype cycle we’ve been in in terms of commodities and specifically around oil prices right and we’ve even seen some
Of that start to falter and so if you start to lose the oil and gas sector right the energy sector and that starts to maybe fall apart a little bit then you’re in real trouble when it comes to s p 500 then you’re in real trouble when it comes to all the big indexes in general and those can start getting hammered a lot worse right we’ve already seen this year the
Russell and the nasdaq going to bear market at the same time meaning they’re down 20 plus from their highs if like i said if we had a couple more trading days like we do today we’re already back down to bear market on those right and if you think about the s p 500 going into bear market and the dow going to bear market you have to get those big dogs to get hit as
Well and the only way those in my opinion will get hit is if those start to report any sort of troubling numbers here and there worrying commentary on the conference calls then all sudden you get the next leg lower right and those babies fall as well now with that being said for a lot of folks that maybe own some of the smaller cap stocks if those stocks fall it
Doesn’t mean those stocks going to get devastated in terms of your smaller cap stocks because you look at a day like today right where you see an nvidia down five plus percent and you see you know apple get hit you see tesla get hammered and you see a lot of the big dogs get hit and yet you looked out at a lot of those retail trader investor stocks and you looked
At a lot of the smaller cap stocks and yeah there were some red but there are also some green and so some of those stocks actually held up pretty decently well so just because let’s say the nasdaq let’s say let’s say the s p 500 fell ten percent it doesn’t mean you know retail stocks are going to get necessarily devastated more you could even simultaneously have
A situation where s p 500 stocks get sold off heavily right a lot of these big dogs fall fall fall and you could simultaneously see smaller caps actually start to rise in that sort of market because it could be a that’s usually a signal that you’re getting very very close to the bottom essentially and so money starts to rotate to some of the smaller cap stocks
Kind of on the dl where nobody’s paying attention everybody’s all caught up into wow look at what apple stock just fell look at how much microsoft’s down everybody’s so caught up into that that’s the talk right and meanwhile you can start to have small caps kind of rally on the dl on the back of that rate because that’s the last that’s the last shoe to fall when
That falls there’s nothing left at that point then everything’s fallen and then you’re kind of at a bottoming out period now the bottoming out period that can last weeks that can last months you never really know how long it can last right we’ve seen it before where that that takes some time to kind of work through but you can kind of get this funny cycle where you
Actually see smalls move up on the d out we’ll see what happens with all that guys let me know your opinion in the comment section i’d love to hear from you guys as always hope you enjoyed me kind of sharing my opinions and perspectives on this don’t forget to smash as always and check out ftx the uh pin comment down there it’ll be the first link in the description
Essentially if you want to sign up for ftx and you basically get a free coin with uh your first 10 crypto you never know what coin it could be you never know maybe a big point bitcoin lost some value i saw that under 40k right now we didn’t even touch on that much love as always guys and have a great day you
Transcribed from video
THIS IS NOT A RECESSION!!! this is a warecession… By Financial Education
