The Fed meeting minutes forecast the worst market in 30 years. In this video, I explain the Fed Meeting Minutes, and how 2022 could be the worst year in the stock market in 30 years.
Hi guys it’s stock curry and i’m going to explain what the fed said to cause the markets to crash today i’ve also got an update on the million dollar challenge portfolio which was up 13 today and i’ve also got a few stock picks to help you turn your portfolio around so let’s get into it okay so the reason the market’s crashed today is because the fed released their
Meeting minutes from their december meeting now meet kevin did a great live stream explaining everything in the meeting minutes if you want to watch his full hour-long explanation i’ll put a link to his video in the description of this video for now i’ll just give you a summary first the fed discussed not only tapering but also reducing their balance sheet which
Means selling their bond assets now this news actually was reported a day early by the wall street journal yesterday and if you want an explanation on that you can go watch the video that i uploaded yesterday now the minutes had more detail than what the wall street journal reported on yesterday and the important detail is that the fed sees the economy is stronger
And inflation is higher than it did the last time that they reduced their portfolio so that means the fed is going to be comfortable reducing their assets at a faster pace than they did the last time they sold bonds and that is going to cause a faster drop in the markets than what was previously expected now that said the fed actually said that it would be easier
To raise interest rates in 2022 than to sell off their assets because raising interest rates is easier to communicate to the public so not only did we have the fed wanting to reduce their balance sheet at a faster pace they also want to raise interest rates at a faster pace further the fed wants to sell bonds faster in order to reduce the usage of the overnight
Reverse repos that are currently at their highest level ever the fed also recognized that raising interest rates and reducing their balance sheet could trigger a recession and that’s something that we’ve talked about in prior videos when we looked at the period during the late 1970s and early 1980s which was the last time inflation was as high as it is down the
Fed actually triggered multiple recessions during that time period which in turn resulted in one of the longest bear markets in the history of the stock market and inflation continues to get worse too which is causing further concern for the fed the fed is actually concerned about the fact that in the past when the pandemic is rose we saw inflation drop but this
Time around as omicron rose we saw inflation continue to rise as well that means inflation is broadening and it’s starting to get out of control which could lead to hyperinflation if the fed doesn’t step in and start taking aggressive action to curb inflation and most importantly the fed said that the fight to curb inflation including raising interest rates and
Selling bonds will take years the fed is expecting to continue raising interest rates and selling bonds for the next two to three years so overall the meeting minutes were much worse than expected and that’s why we saw the markets especially the nasdaq absolutely tank today now the million dollar challenge portfolio was actually up 12.8 percent today and here’s
Why yesterday after we got the wall street journal report we saw the nasdaq go down i mean the nasdaq literally did a complete 180 it went from extremely bullish on monday to extremely bearish on tuesday and when i saw that i decided you know what we’ve got a lot of bullish positions in the million dollar challenge portfolio it’s probably going to be a good idea
To open up a hedge in case the nasdaq continues to drop and so yesterday we actually opened up two qqq put options on the nasdaq and even though the market rebounded after i opened those positions yesterday the options were down 50 as of the close yesterday today as the nasdaq absolutely tanked those options those put options went up 600 percent today in one day
A 600 game now i was already down 50 yesterday so net of that i ended up closing out the options today for about a 300 game and that 300 gain is what saved the million dollar challenge portfolio from losing money and that’s why the million dollar challenge portfolio was up 12.8 percent today even though the market overall was just absolutely blood red now if you
Want to follow along as far as what we’re buying and selling in the million dollar challenge portfolio you can do so i post all of the buys and sells free of charge on twitter you can follow me on twitter at twitter.comrealscottcurry there were quite a few people on twitter and the discord who followed along they bought those qqq puts and they were up anywhere
From 30 to 300 percent depending upon when they bought and which option they actually purchased now if you want to follow along in the discord but we actually discuss all these plays before we make them you can join the free discord and the free discord is available i’ve got an application over on my website at stock curry.vip discord the only reason i have the
Application there is to help prevent scammers the truth is every single person who applies is going to get approved all right let’s get into today’s stock picks and i’ll give you a little bit more of an update on the million dollar challenge portfolio what plays with me today uh for those of you guys who are new to this channel my name is stock curry i used to
Work as an analyst for some large investment banks and now i analyze stocks for you every day i spend hours and hours and hours watching videos from the top finance channels and then i consolidate all of their stock picks and i put them together into a single video i give you both the cliff notes on their stock picks as well as my analysis on their stock picks now
If anything i talk about today piques your interest make sure you listen to who has they talked about it and then go watch their video to get the full details of what they set now all i ask for putting all of this together for you guys is that you hit that like button subscribe and follow the page so that you can get notified when i release my next video in fact
I’ll give you five seconds to do that right now all right before we get into today’s stock picks i do want to remind you that i am not a financial advisor nothing i talk about today is a recommendation to buy sell or hold these are just my opinions which may or may not be accurate if you’re wondering what you’re looking at right now this is the weeble desktop
App weeble is the app that i use for my trading and it is also the app that i use in all of my videos if you’d like to get two free stocks worth up to 3 300 you can sign up for weeble using my link in the description below when you sign up using my link in the description below and deposit just one dollar weeble will send you two free stocks worth up to three
Thousand three hundred dollars all right let’s get into today’s stock picks but first let’s do an update on the million dollar challenge portfolio so the first thing i did this morning is i bought an f which is ford and i bought an f credit bear call spread so this will actually make max profit so long as f closes at or below 24.50 on friday now f was extremely
Volatile today but it did close the day at 23.66 so we’re almost one dollar into the money on f now the next thing i did is about about 35 for the g w just trying to get some minor diversification compared to just going all in on gs and c and stocks like that so it’s another banking stock that should perform well this year it’s just a straight stock that i bought
And the last thing i did is that i sold those qqq 390 dollar friday puts that we had bought yesterday now you can see here that we bought the puts yesterday at a dollar 45 and then i sold one at five dollars and 11 cents with about an hour left in the close the reason i did that is because a lot of times when we get a big drop in the markets we’ll actually get a
Rebound with about one hour left to close so i wanted to trim the position and sell one in case the markets went up but the markets did not go up actually they continued to drop further so i closed the second one about two minutes before the close of the market and i stole that one at six dollars and 42 cents so overall the qqq were us up about 300 percent from
When we bought in yesterday and that is why we were able to make money in the market today we actually had a lot of these credit bull put spreads go down today because we had bought these on monday when the markets were looking very very bullish and so when the markets turned bearish well that really screws up these options and so that’s why i had to go do that
Hedge so on the options right now f is currently at max profit pfe is currently at max profit these two are both bearish place sofi is at max profit it is a bullish play however amd aapl and tsla are all down at the current time now amd is down a ton i’ve got no hope for this rebounding by friday but aapl and tsla are still very close to the money so if we can get
Some green on thursday and friday i do think we can get back into the money on aapl and tsla but again nobody really knows what’s going to happen from day to day i have no clue if we’re going to be in the money or not now as far as the qqq puts and the hedges are concerned i saw that kiki was going up a little bit after hours i also saw that we are very very close
To the 100-day ema here which closed today at 381.72 cents so my thought was we had a major major drop today if the markets trade fairly flat on thursday then those put options are going to drop significantly in value because the volatility is going to go down which is measured by vega and vega goes down on the options it’s going to cause the price of the options
To go down so my thought here was if the market’s trade fairly flat or even up a little bit on thursday then i can re-buy that qqq hedge only this time rather than doing a weekly i’m going to be doing a monthly so we’ll be looking to buy that either expiring towards the end of this month around january 31st or the actual february monthly one either way i do plan
On reopening a qqq put option as a hedge in this portfolio but we’re gonna do a lot further out we’re not gonna do the weekly now there is a chance that we’re not gonna get a rebound at all in fact the features right down are down about 0.6 percent on qqq so there’s a good chance that we are just gonna keep on dropping uh like i put on my twitter post today when we
Get a lot of rejections on a resistance level and the markets go down at 100 percent of the time over the past 10 years that this has happened the qq has dropped down to below the 100-day ema and in some cases dropped all the way down below the 300-day ema in just three weeks now we are two days into this so if you think about that we got the rest of this week the
Following week and then the week after that so through about the end of january we can see a drop but again it’s not going to drop literally every single day we’ll get things like this where we had two days of drop a green day and then two days drop a green day and you know it kind of slowly goes down it doesn’t literally just drop every single day so that’s why
I think there’s a good chance we’ll get some flat or maybe even a slight rebound on thursday and friday and that is where i’m hoping to be able to rebuy those qq put options at a lower price now again there’s no guarantees that’s going to happen we could literally just see a tank kind of like we did in march of 2020 but i don’t think that’s going to happen i think
We’re going to hit some resistance here at the 100-day ema flatten out a little bit and be able to buy some of those put options at a little bit of a discount okay now let’s get into the stock picks and we’ll talk about some things that you can buy to turn your portfolio around as well as some things you should probably stay away from and the first talk we’re going
To talk about today is bbby which is bed bath and beyond joseph hogue bought bbby last year and he continues to hold it he thinks it will perform well in 2022 as choppers return to stores now bbby is a deep value stock with a price of sales ratio of only 0.18 the problem though is that bbbyy has seen decreasing revenues every year for the past three years and they’re
Not profitable they have 970 million dollars in cash on hand and 1.18 billion dollars in debt so bbby is burning cash and eventually they’re going to run out of money and they will most likely have to declare bankruptcy at their current cash burn rate of 125 million per quarter bpy will be out of cash by the end of next year this is a dying company that reminds
Me a lot of sears and jcpenney both of those companies were able to stay nasdaq listed for years as they sold properties and performed accounting tricks to keep their share price up eventually though both of their stocks were delisted sears eventually went out of business and jcpenney is well on its way to going out of business now i would stay away from bbby so
Just because a stock is cheap does not mean that it’s a good buy this is one that i think joseph hoe will continue to lose money on at joseph hogue did give a good point about the possibility for a short-term run-up and that is the fact that bbbyy is heavily shorted and is also a favorite of retail investors so any good news at all such as positive q4 numbers from
Say better than expected holiday shopping season could drive the share price up temporarily but betting on a rise in interest from retail investors and a limited short squeeze is quite the gamble and just not one that i would take the next stocks that we’re going to talk about today are c and gs this is citigroup and goldman sachs joseph hogue said he is buying
More seed this month in anticipation of baking stocks rising this year i completely agree that banking stocks will most likely be the best performing sector this year and they will also make higher profits as interest rates rise i personally like gsnc the best as these two banking stocks have the lowest p e ratios c is currently at a p e ratio of 6 and gs has a p
E ratio of 6.6 so both are extremely undervalued and both should rise significantly in 2022 possibly even doubling in price again this year just like they did last year and next up is grpn this is groupon back on march 4th the traveling trader said he was looking to buy groupon back when it was trading at 50 a share grpn has now dropped 50 percent from that price
And it is down 60 from its all-time high price of 64.69 now joseph hogue is saying that grpn is one of the best stocks to buy for january while i’m concerned about buying any stocks right now since i do think we are going to get a bear market i must admit that after falling for months grpn has finally turned bullish on the technicals it is showing 100 confirmation
Of a rebound and even after today’s drop of four percent grpn is still bullish on the technicals fundamentally grpn is trading at a current p e of 7.95 and a forward p e of 21.8 that means the stock is pricing in decreasing earnings rather than growth further the price to sales ratio is 0.51 so g rpn is a solid value stock now taking a look at their cash and debt
To determine how rising interest rates might affect the stock we can see that grpn has 476 million dollars in cash on hand no short-term debt and only 223 million dollars worth of long-term debt so grpn could pay off all of their debt if interest rates rise too much overall grpn will be able to get through this period of rising interest rates just fine and while
They haven’t turned a profit in three years they are expected to report a profit for fiscal year 2021 so overall i actually like this play it’s undervalued fundamentally it’s profitable and they have more cash on hand than they do debts so while i would be very cautious buying stocks right now i do like grpn at the current price joseph hogg also thinks grpn would
Make a good takeover target which would cause the stock price to jump by 30 to 40 percent if a takeover is announced and the last talk we’re going to talk about today is sq this is square keenan gray said he thinks sq will double in price this year but i want to remind you that this is a fintech company and not a banking stock banking stocks were only down one or
Two percent on tuesday sq was down over eight percent the reason is because fintech companies make their money from financial service fees such as credit card processing fees banks on the other hand make most of their money from loans and as interest rate drives loan rates will rise as well which means banks will make more money due to the higher interest rates
On the money that they are lending out but fintech companies will see reduced revenues as people shop less and use financial services less due to having less expendable cash to spend that is one reason why we saw sq’s revenues drop so much last quarter and why the stock is dropping in price right now and it’s not like sq is trading at a discount fundamentally
It is still expensive with a forward p e ratio of 85 and a price to sales ratio of 7.3 so it’s very possible that we will see sq drop back down to the price it was trading act all the way back in 2019 which was between 60 and 90 dollars per share further sq is technically a falling knife right now we do have some more support levels coming up but so far sq has
Continued to break below each support level the next support levels are at 135 110 90 80 and 60 dollars from today’s price action we can see that sq is obviously being negatively affected by a drop in the stock market and if the stock market does enter bear territory we could see sq bottom out at anywhere between 60 and 90 dollars per share so i would stay away
From sq for the time being unless you want to open up a bearish position on it all right i hope you enjoyed this video and get a lot out of it comment down below what you think the market is going to do for the rest of this week and again if you want to join the free discord to follow along with a million dollar challenge portfolio you can do so on the website
Just go to stock curry.vip discord fill out the application and you will get an invite link to the discord again every single person who fills out the application is going to get approved the application is just there to prevent scammers now if you don’t currently have a broker to trade with you can sign up for weeble using my link in the description below when
You sign up for weeble and you deposit just one dollar weeble’s gonna send you two free stocks worth up to three thousand three hundred dollars when you sign up using my link in the description below now if you’re not a us resident or if you’re looking to trade otc penny stocks then i recommend interactive brokers interactive workers is the best trading platform
For non-us residents and it also includes multi-leg options and cryptocurrencies and if you want to sign up for interactive brokers i’ve got a link for that in the description as well now i do want to remind you that our material connections with both weeble and interactive brokers so whenever you sign up for either one not only are you getting a great broker to
Trade with you’re also helping me to continue to produce these great videos for you now finally i want to remind you to hit that like button subscribe and follow the page if you haven’t already i hope you have a lot of success trading and i will see you tomorrow you
Transcribed from video
THE WORST MARKET IN 30 YEARS – Fed Meeting Minutes Explained – Thursday, January 6, 2022 By Stock Curry – We Profit Day and Night
