Looking to Apply to Join my Private Stock Discord Chat & Private Stock Market Group? Link here
Holy smokers this ain’t no dang jokers folks do we have a lot to get into this video the market’s going absolutely nuts we got to talk about that the state of the market we got to talk about meta meta earnings just came out we got to talk about best buy horrible news just came out of best buy we got to talk about paypal paypal stock went through the roof today
Shopify stock went through the roof today we got so much to get into in today’s video guys hope you enjoy this as always i told you this week was going to be complete madness and it is okay yes the nasdaq made an over 4 move here today yes over four percent that rarely ever happens that the nasdaq goes up over four percent just absolutely insane look at the moves
I pulled up just the stocks that i have money in personally i had 16 stocks that made a three percent or more move here today absolutely insane including paypal which we’re going to talk about later in this video up over 12 shopify up almost 12 we’ll talk about that one later in today’s video we talked about google in yesterday’s video that one’s up seven point
Seven percent palantir six point six percent meta six and a half percent the moves are epic okay epic nonetheless out there absolutely insane this was the definition of let’s go risk on that’s as simple as it goes okay risk on across the board here today you pull up a heat map and it is just it’s right in front of your face man it’s green everywhere other than
Maybe healthcare and visa just about everywhere else look at it i mean it’s just a sea of green if you didn’t make money today i don’t know what to tell you okay maybe you’re a short seller or something like that because it today should have been a very positive day in your accounts here today okay so the fed came out and they announced they’re gonna raise uh you
Know by 75 basis points so we’re in the situation now that the fed is looks like the worst is likely behind us in terms of the fed raising rates right the fed basically told us and telegraphed us that they’re starting to see some weakness in the economy but they still see a lot of job openings that kind of gives you know i would call it the feds kind of walking
A tightrope right now where they don’t want to seem a little too hawkish they want to seem a little too dovish and i think that’s kind of where the market wants it right now i feel like the market wants the fed to take it kind of month by month right now and quarter by quarter and look at all everything that’s going on because what we know is inflation’s sky high
Right now but the belief is inflation’s going to start coming down right so you don’t want the fed to go too crazy with raising interest rates because you know they might go too far to the other side now remember the fed lagged on the other side right they lagged when it came to raising interest rates and that’s part of the reason we got into the this mess it’s
Not the only reason but it’s definitely part of the reason we got into this mess of super high inflation now if they go too far to the other side right we could end up in a situation where they completely kill the economy and yeah you get inflation down but then also you’re at a completely devastated economy and we know we know based upon a lot of what we look at
Okay and this is very important we know the economy is weakening we know this okay you see it in these companies numbers you see it in the real estate market we know we’re starting to see the cracks in the economy happen and part of that wall street likes part of that wall street wants to see because they want to see inflation come down and they want to see the
Worst behind us when it comes to fed raising interest rates so part of that is something that wall street ultimately wants to see they want to see a slow down actually in the economy and that’s very rare because usually if anything on wall street you’d like to see the economy heating up right getting better and better not right now everybody kind of wants to see a
Slowing but at the same time they want to see the fed go too crazy right i mean if the fed could have raised by 300 basis points today everybody would have been you know freaking out and the market would have been down four or five six percent here a day right keep this in mind we are still significant significantly off of all-time highs even after a massive move
Today uh russell’s still off about 25 the nasdaq’s still off about 25 so keep in mind we’re still a long long way from any of those all-time highs we reach and keep in mind also you saw a move today like the nasdaq up four percent plus meanwhile the s p and the dow were only up one and two percent well remember the nasdaq has a lot of catching up to do and if we
Were to go into a risk on period over the next few months the nasdaq has a lot of catching up to do usually the nasdaq should be within three to five percent of the s p 500 in the dow right now there’s about a nine percent spread there right and uh about you know 12 percentage points between the nasdaq and the dow right now that’s that’s an abnormal number let’s
Just call it that okay best buy came out here after hours and announced just out of nowhere bad news okay very bad news best buy on wednesday cut its forecast for the year in the second quarter saying it’s seen weaker demand for consumer electronics amid inflation these two paragraphs are the key ones the consumer electronics retailer said now to expect same source
Sales to decline about 13 for the second quarter guys 13 same store sales awful i mean just about as bad as you’ll ever see it let’s just put it that way i don’t even know in the great financial crisis if best buy got to 13 same store sales they probably did but that’s an obliteration okay oh my gosh that’s lower than i said in may when it predicted roughly in
Line with the first quarter when it dropped 8 percent so they were expecting eight percent same store sales decline which is already just awful you should never see an eight percent decline in your same store sales but if you see 13 that’s like you know like end of the world type numbers just awful okay quote as high inflation has continued and consumer sentiment
Has deteriorated customer demand within the consumer electronics industry has softened even further leading to q2 financial results below the expectation we shared in may they said okay so bad bad news no you know i i saw this and i was like oh my gosh man you know first off we should have probably seen this coming because corsair pre-reported bad horrible numbers
Logitech reported bad numbers so if logitech and corsair have been numbers likely that’s going to boil over into a company like best buy right and so i was thinking oh man that probably was such an attractive short easy candidate there and i’m like that stock’s probably down i would guess 8 to 15 after hours 8 maybe best case scenario 15 maybe worst case scenario
Because of how bad the same store sales came in at so far worse than expected meanwhile the stock’s down three percent three percent that’s it and and here’s the deal man when you start getting into a market that is you know i mean talk about this stock right 52 week range it was 140 142 stock at one point it’s half that today so it’s already priced in a lot of
Bad news and so you get devastating news like today and three percent down after hours that’s like nothing when you talk about your same store sale is gonna be down 13 oh my gosh okay but that’s that’s a market brand right where folks are you’re just starting to run out of sellers in these stocks you’re starting to run out of sellers people are like yeah you know
Same store sales are crap right now but we already priced this baby we already cut it in half so we already priced for this devastation and likely some people are viewing it as we’re in the worst quarter or the next quarter will be the worst quarter and then we’ll start getting a little better a little better and people are also looking at it from year over year
Comps will be in a better position right that leads us to mata oh boy okay good old mata what happened here and what’s my opinion this is a stock i personally own okay earnings came at 2.46 cents a share versus 259 was expected that’s obviously a mess revenue came at 28.8 billion 20. 28.9 billion was expected very slight mess there that’s basically in line daily
Active users slightly beat but that’s basically in line monthly active users slightly missed but that’s basically in line and uh arpu average revenue per user basically was in line okay so not a disaster not a disaster as far as that goes the disaster though was here in the guidance the company said sales in the quarter the upcoming quarter will be in the range
Of 26 billion to 28.5 billion that analyst on average had him at 30 30.5 billion okay so basically the midpoint you want to run the midpoint between 26 billion and 28 and a half billion right the midpoint is over 3 billion dollars below what analysts had so if you were to say okay a company is going to report earnings and their mid point is going to be 3 billion
Plus below what analysts were expecting you would automatically assume that this stock has to be getting just absolutely torn to shreds after hours right especially given that this stock was up huge today it was a massive upward day right well it’s not i’ve seen the stock anywhere from about down one percent to down about four percent after hours one to four
Percent move oh my gosh we’ll take that any day of the week when you just miss your guidance by over three billion dollars in the midpoint and your stock’s only down one to four percent after hours you will take that any day of the week but here’s the situation with meta okay and here’s why this is very very important by the way i have uh you know this is this is
The account i have the most meta shares in right now i have 533 shares in that particular account i thought i would be loading up on shares because i thought the stock might be down 10 plus after that huge you know guidance missed there but med is one of those stocks that i’m adding across all my accounts right now and i plan to continue to the the death of meta
Has been greatly exaggerated let’s just put it that way okay and here’s the deal with meta and here’s why a lot of investors like myself are buying the stock right now despite a bad guidance like that the reason we are is first off we understand how sticky the product is at the end of the day if people want to make fun of facebook or instagram or whatever the fact
Is people use those products like it’s nobody’s business and have for years and they continue to you look at the monthly metrics you look at the the daily metrics they’re off the charts okay phenomenal people still use this this product heavily would they also own whatsapp as well right the company trades at a 12 to 14 trailing p in forward p it’s insanely cheap
Stock right it trades at a price to sales ratio under four this stock historically has always traded at a price to sales ratio of over 10 and historically has traded in the p ranges of like you know high 20s to even i’ve seen it trade you know in the 40s in the past so when you’re talking about it’s trading this cheap it’s basically like you’re getting money for
Free right now imagine a situation if they were to cut expenses this this company added a ridiculous amount of employees over the past few years and they’re spending like insane for the metaphors imagine if they were to dial this expenses back a bit then imagine how profitable this business model is it’s already insanely cheap with them doing all this spending all
Their spending for the metaverse and everything right and all the employees they’ve added the crazy amount of money that they’re they’re pumping into r d and they’re still this profitable imagine if they cut that back a bit then imagine how profitable and so that’s why a lot of us are looking at this kind of like dude with this balance sheet the way it is with
How profitable this company is with how sticky the products are that this company has um it’s basically like getting free money right now that’s why we continue to buy shares and we continue to load up on this stock and like i said this isn’t one of those stocks that i’m the only one buying there’s a lot of big investors adding shares of this company right now
And that’s one of the reasons why it’s hard to get the stock to go down much more it’s already priced in so much bad news i mean that stock you know is another one of those you look at the year to date for meta it’s down probably close to 50 percent it’s another one of those stocks has been cut in half and straight on a valuation basis that’s what has been cut in
Half based upon a valuation basis and now it’s trading that cheap with that balance sheet with that those products this company has and the opportunity in the future come on man give me give me free money and that’s meta shopify so new stock made a massive move up here today 11 plus upward move for shopify here today after yesterday it was down 14 so talk about a
Volatility you know a stock that’s just insanely volatile right that’s shopify so shopify you would have thought they had to report amazing earnings being up 11 plus right well earnings came in at a loss of three cents a share adjust it versus an expected gain of two cents uh yeah that’s not good at all revenue came in at 1.3 billion 1.33 billion was expected okay
So slight miss there yeah earnings were not some amazing thing the guidance was you know there was nothing to be excited about as far as guidance went so and then the stock goes up 11 plus here today right well remember shopify is a stock that year to date is down 74 okay and so when you start talking about these sorts of companies that are down year-to-date 50
60 70 plus right they have already been priced for devastation so if shopify doesn’t come in with devastation and they only slightly miss on revenue boom 11 up right and a stock like shopify will continue to move up over the next year or two as long as they don’t report devastation as long as they don’t come in like the whole business is wrecked they’ll just
Continue to move up and move up and move up they don’t even have to they don’t even have to announce anything exciting they don’t have to announce any game changing numbers any game changing products for the next year or two and that stock will move up and move up and move up and move up because it’s already been priced for devastation that’s how it is when your
Stock’s down 70 plus you’ve been priced for the end of the world and if the end of the world doesn’t come you make some absolutely epic moves to upside and then other people are looking and they’re like what you know what’s so exciting about shopify they’re none of their numbers are exciting right now like what’s going on here yeah the stocks already been priced
For the end of the world so just don’t have the end of the world come and you’ll do just fine paypal speaking about stocks that have been priced for the end of the world paypal move makes up move over 12 percent here today what happened with paypal well elia an activist called elliott and they’ve been involved in several different stocks in the past basically
Um yeah it’s come out that they’re they’ve made a move on paypal essentially invest in this company now when it comes to elliot there could be a few things at play here they might want paypal to maybe aggressively buy back shares they might want to try to get paypal to essentially the the idea here is okay is you buy a bunch of shares of a stock then you start
Getting some influence and you can start trying to talk to the the executives of the company the board of directors and try to convince them to do certain things right and if you own a significant amount of shares the board of directors and executives might be a little more likely to listen to you your your propositions and your opinions right so they could want
Paypal to cut way down on r d and expenses there’s talk that they could get margins from 25 percent to 40 if they cut expenses in a major way and there’s a belief at least from some folks that that would not necessarily hurt the business model very bad at all and so if that’s a situation you could be talking about a paypal that emerges as a way more of a profit
Obese than we’ve ever seen in the past when it comes to paypal so that is at least part of the belief that that could happen there and people get excited about this right because they look at paypal and they’re like they own paypal and venmo you know two of the biggest financial related services in the world those platforms just continue to grow we know it’s a
Growing company right even even if the economy is bad and let’s say the economy is bad in 2023 for whatever reason right paypal will still likely be a growth engine and that’s one of the few companies that can grow even in a recession never mind if the economy is very good paypal will grow quite immensely right and so people look at this and they’re like this
Is a pretty dang good opportunity here and on top of that paypal’s been priced for devastation even after today’s huge move up of 12 plus that stock is still down 55 year day 55 it has been priced for the end of the world right and if the end of the world doesn’t come paypal makes a huge move up also keep this in mind this is very important visa numbers came out
They were great american express numbers came out they were great and i mean great visa and american express those were a if not a plus type quarters absolutely amazing so if these in american express are reporting very strong numbers there’s a good probability paypal is going to report some actually pretty strong numbers as well maybe not as strong as visa in
American express but pretty respectable right and once again the stock has been priced for end of the world because it’s down 55 plus percent and it’s not a high valuation name when it comes to paypal either that’s the thing when it comes to paypal that’s a stock that trades at a pe of under 30 even with their crazy amount of spend that this company does that you
Could say they could easily cut back on because they say well you already got that you already got paypal you already got venmo like do you really need to spend all this money on r d and it’s i think it’s a fair question right are they really gonna do anything that innovative that’s gonna so far change the game maybe they are maybe they’re not right and maybe you
Know this time period we’re going through of all this recession concerns and everything going on with inflation maybe it’s a time period where paypal could potentially you know uh let’s just call it lighten up on expenses and and end up creating a business model that’s far more profitable than any paypal we’ve seen in the past and it’s already trading pretty darn
Cheap going into this okay so that’s going on it’s clear as day all of a sudden the whole financial markets want to take risk it’s clear it’s day i’ll send its risk on right look at bitcoin up eight percent plus look at ethereum up 15 plus but look a little deeper you always want to look a little deeper right look at the ethereum chart look at the chart as soon
As a fed came out and did their dang thing ethereum started shooting to the moon and anybody that wants to try to say oh you know bitcoin and ethereum don’t have anything to do with the financial markets bs okay these things move based upon risk and if folks are going risk off these things tank and has nothing to do with the crypto community or anything like that
Bottom line if we go risk off ethereum and bitcoin fly down okay in a bad way and they crash and if all of a sudden we want to go risk on nasdaq’s moving up big you know it’s just overall enthusiasm out there to take risk bitcoin ethereum makes some absolutely massive moves and there’s no debate about that anymore okay the only debate is do we remain kind of risk
On for a while in the biggest i’ll tell you it’s where it’s all going to depend on these two these two companies tomorrow these are last two major major companies of earnings season we got a ton more earnings coming over this earnings season but these are the last two major companies to report earnings apple and amazon if it’s not end of the world and they actually
Report decent numbers we’ll remain risk on but but if apple comes in and says hey consumers getting really really weak and our numbers are going to likely be very light for the rest of this year then you could see oh boy we’re back in a risk off again because people are like oh boy the recessions we’re getting more confirmation and when you talk about apple you’re
Talking about the biggest market cap in the world so those earnings on thursday after the belt are going to be extremely important i’ll definitely cover that for you guys as always if you’re looking to join my private stock group and private discord chat and learn how to value a stock so you know if it’s overvalued undervalued or fairly value if you want to learn
How to understand financial statements like a cpa would if you want to get access to my dividend investing mastery course my becoming master’s stock market course and my thriving and recession course which i just added a new video that’s absolutely amazing it goes into detail on exactly how business models can emerge coming out of recession to be far more profitable
Than they ever were in the past and exactly how that process goes i added that last night to that course is pretty darn awesome if you want to get access to my private discord chat and know what moves i’m making on the market check out the ping comment down there and apply to join us in the private stock group much love as always and have a great day
Transcribed from video
Stocks Soar : Investors In Shock : Here's what Will Happen Next By Financial Education