Link to join StockHub free investing discord server: Want to join our free STOCKHUB discord chat? Here is the link
Yes there is another stock market crash coming in my opinion and in today’s video i want to explain exactly why i believe there’s another stock market crash coming and this one will be worse than the one we just went through okay i’m gonna go all into details on this hope you guys enjoy this video as always i forgot to say yesterday so let me say it today samatha
Thumbs up button let’s start getting into this guys okay two things we got to cover before we get into this video okay the first is i could be completely wrong about this okay i’m gonna show you a lot of data in this video i’m gonna give you a lot of opinion and i could be absolutely wrong maybe the stock market crash doesn’t come maybe from here we’re just up up
And away and everything’s grand okay so i could be a hundred percent wrong so i just want to say that so don’t make any decisions based upon what i tell you in this video think about it for yourself make your own decisions out there okay as you guys probably know i’m not putting any more money in the market i have it for pretty much last like two or three weeks
And i’m interesting being on the sidelines i have a lot of money invested in the stock market but in terms of new money i’m sideline staying for right now i’m sideline watching okay but i could be wrong about this maybe with the next stock market crash doesn’t come i just want to put that out there as a disclaimer so make your own decisions make your own judgments
Okay the last thing i want to cover a lot of people watching the channel right now that aren’t super familiar with me and my content in the channel i am somebody that’s super bullish okay i am super bullish it’s like i got a bowl on my shoulder almost all the time okay why am i always pretty much optimistic and super bullish wolman optimistic person for one okay i
Always look at the glass half full as they say right not just that i need a pace to be bullish most of the time where’s the stock market go most years up where the stocks go most times up okay you know great companies where what happens to great companies they 5 x 10 x 20 x hundred x ur stock prices over a course of five to ten years so it pays to be bullish most
Of the time but let me just tell you i’m the least bullish i’ve ever been okay i’m no doomsday person out there that like just puts out scary content to put out scary content there’s that side of youtubes exist and i know those channels and they just you know it doesn’t matter what type of market is they’re always preaching negativity and do stay scenarios and
All this and that i’m definitely i’m probably the furthest thing from that if there’s ever like a hate comment i get a lot it’s like you’re too bullish you hear you’re too optimistic on blah blah blah okay right now i’m the least optimistic i’m the least bullish i’ve ever been in my 11 or 12 years i’ve been in the stock market the least bullish in by far it’s not
Even close okay it’s not even close between all the other times it kind of what i’m feeling right now and when i look at this data okay so i just wanted to cover those you know before we start getting into this okay so as of yesterday the nasdaq was down six percent year-to-date and the s&p 500 was down twelve percent year-to-date okay that’s as of yesterday
And most years i would look at that now say we need to be buying stocks man that’s a dang good deal there’s got to be a countless amount of deals out there okay that is phenomenal i love this i love this market okay this is a different scenario this is this is this is way way different than the average year and if this was happening i would just be buying stocks
Okay let’s be honest we had a lego tower built to the sky and it’s just completely fallen down now okay the lego pieces are everywhere for us to step on with their foot and go out okay that’s what the scenario is now we had a lego tower to this guy like three months ago like literally three months ago the lego tower was standing everything was looking great and
Then roni rona came right integers had caused mass devastation and that that’s their own right there okay it’s just mass devastation and what i feel like we’re in right now we’re in like around like the eye of the hurricane where the stock market is kind of treating this like you know hey it’s not that bad blah blah blah and and and i’m just looking and i’m like
We haven’t even gone through the full storm yet we still gotta we still gotta see what the devastation is we can’t even see the devastation yet we’re still in the storm okay we’re still in the huge storm and when it finally does end and when businesses finally start to open we’ll get to see what the devastation was okay we’ll get to see what the devastation was
No different than if you’re in a tornado situation right child to my people that live in a tornado alley or whether you live you know a part that you know has huge hurricanes or something like that you don’t know what the devil you’re bunker or whatever you go hiding you don’t know what the devastation is until you the storms passed you come out and then you see
Oh my gosh my whole town just got blown down okay that’s what happens and that’s the economy right now that’s the stock market right now with no one no one knows no one’s really like like being able to go out there yeah we’re just in the eye of the storm and eventually we’re gonna get to see okay now let’s start going through some more data okay let’s start looking
At some data so the market trades off a few things it trades off confidence and the markets in general trade off of what’s called like like forward estimates for basically what earnings will likely be in the in the s&p 500 if what we’re looking at here for 12-month estimates for sp 500 would put it at like eighteen point eight one and i can tell you that number
Is way higher than that that number is dramatically low okay that’s ridiculous okay the market trades off sp500 forward p/e sms and i can tell you that number way too low it’s way higher than that and i mean dramatically higher i’m talking probably you know at least 50% to 100% higher keep in mind that’s taking the next 12 months okay so that’s taking this this this
Quarter we’re in which is a horrible quarter next quarter is gonna be just as bad if not worse and then the two remaining quarters after that and i’m just looking at that i’m like whoa those numbers are way way off from you know what they have basically they’re on the wsj okay that’s just insane okay goldman sachs goldman sachs and this was a few weeks ago they
Came out and did this they might have brought down number since then okay but goldman sachs put out there that they believe sp500 corporate earnings in 2020 would be a hundred and sixty five dollars which was down from their previous estimate of one hundred and seventy four and i can tell you dream on about that number dream on we’re not even gonna get anywhere
Remotely close to that number in my personal opinion a hundred and sixty-five dollars that’s going to be a joke wells fargo investment institute they put out their numbers they believe sp500 earnings for 2020 would be a hundred and sixty six dollars compared to previous view which was 172 i can’t you know they had a bet between me and them i would probably place
Every baller i have to my name on the fact that we will hit those numbers guys i mean we won’t even get remotely close to those numbers in my personal opinion that’s just an actual joke in my opinion we’re gonna be lucky we’re gonna be lucky if we have $75 of sp500 earnings in 2020 in my personal opinion we’ll be lucky lucky if we get $75 okay these estimates from
All these analysts around what 2020 you know earnings will be but that’s some people i 100 they all need to come down in a massive massive way you know i mean i mean in really they can’t come down that much as of right now because why they haven’t heard anything from the companies and if you haven’t heard anything from the companies then you really don’t know as an
Analyst how much to bring your numbers down so they’ve been bringing their numbers down a little bit but just wait and tell some of these executives start putting out some of the numbers that are actually coming in and what they expect that is when that is when the analysts will start to readjust their numbers and bring them down massively and when these analysts
Are bringing down their their earnings estimates massively especially when they all are going to be doing it at once which will happen in my opinion but that’s when you’re gonna get a massive massive sell-off in the stock market okay we’re gonna be lucky to do 120 dollars of earnings in my personal opinion for the s&p 500 and 2021 120 dollars why do i believe
This well okay when business does open back up whether it starts opening back up in may june july august regardless whenever things start opening back up it’s not like all the business is gonna be back to 100% capacity it’s not even like they’re gonna be remotely hosted at keep in mind unemployment rates are going to be ridiculously high in the longer and longer
This goes the worse and worse things are going to be right i mean things are already gonna be really really bad since we’re gonna if we start in may if we have to wait till june to restart the economy things are going to be even worse unemployment rates will be even higher and it’ll take even on a longer time to bring it down don’t take even a longer time to get
Corporate earnings back we’re talking years not months okay i think we’re going to be very lucky to do a hundred and twenty dollars of earnings for the s&p 500 and 2021 okay let’s go ahead have some numbers say that’s it you know we’ll see where the sp500 closes that today let’s say the s&p 500 closed at about you know 2020 800 okay go ahead and do the math
On that hundred twenty dollars up earnings and we’re basically sitting at twenty three point three twenty twenty one pe when it comes to the forward estimates that’s rich okay that’s really rich and keep in mind i think we’re gonna be lucky i think we’re gonna be fortunate if we can do one hundred twenty dollars in twenty twenty one because of you know how high
Unemployment rates will still likely be in 2021 how much gdp will still need to recover how much of a mess the business landscape will still be in 2021 because this has gone on for so long that it’s just gonna be tough as we start to climb out of it’s gonna be a very very tough situation never mind that imagine if the roni rona takes back off in the fall and we
Have to close down business again you know that that number that number of $120 won’t even won’t even you know be in consideration at that point time okay so i think one hundred and twenty dollars of earnings to the s&p 500 and 2021 i think that is uh you know i think that’s fair but i think that’s my you actually be a little bit aggressive in meanwhile the
Stock market the past three weeks is like a kid disneyland that’s what it’s like i mean it’s just acting like whoa you know this is happy times man this is happy times look at the s&p 500 since it bottomed around you know march 23rd march 24th it is basically been up in a straight line it hits that bottom 2200 and then yesterday is trading well over 2,800 are
You kidding me in this environment that’s that’s incredible the dow jones industrial average it bottoms at 18 3 and yesterday is trading at over 24,000 over 24,000 oh what 5,600 5,700 move upward in a matter of a three-week span in the dow jones industrial average that’s just ridiculous then nasdaq the nasdaq composite same exact situation it bottoms out 6600 next
Thing you know yesterday is trading over 8,500 the stock markets in fairytale land in and we don’t have anything good to say we don’t have anything good to say there i can tell you that everything is bad news bad news bad news and it’s real bad news it’s not made up let’s just let’s just you know talk about some scary stuff now this is this is real talk okay home
Builder confidence index takes biggest monthly dive ever ever unemployment rate is skyrocketing to the worst numbers we’ve seen ever we’ve never seen jobless claims come in this fast and in at this level or even remotely close to this ever okay this isn’t like this is oh it’s just kind of bad compared to no no this is these are worst ever gdp the worst ever numbers
We’re gonna get for gdp okay you know goldman sachs was talking about gdp decline in the us of eleven percent from a year ago i think that’s way too optimistic i think that’s way too optimistic i think it’s gonna be way worse than that okay and gdp next quarter is just gonna be awful i mean absolutely abysmal who’s gonna make every other gdp decline we’ve ever had
In the history united states look like it was absolutely nothing okay absolutely nothing and so let’s get this right okay unemployment it you know the jobless claims worst ever home builder confidence worst ever business confidence in general especially if you think about the next year to probably worst ever gdp declines worst ever buy for and away and once again
The stock market has been climbing the past few weeks okay now here’s the interesting thing let’s go back let’s go back to the 2007 through 2009 recession which keep in mind i think what we’re in right now is way more dramatic i in i don’t just think that look at the numbers like the numbers of proof in the pudding like it’s is wait it’s way way way worse right
But we go ahead and look at a stock chart this is basically showing you the s&p 500 from 2007 through 2009 during the great you know financial crisis whatever you want to call it the housing crisis right we saw some nice pick ups in the market throughout that stock market crash okay we got that initial fall in the market which wasn’t nearly as dramatic as the
One we experienced obviously like two months ago right but we got that initial fall in the market and then the market actually bounced back oh to new highs it literally did and then things started to go down and get worse worse and then we had a nice bounce-back and next thing you know the s&p 500 trading back over 1,400 and it’s like an eye cold okay then
We have another big fall okay but then the market starts roaring back and next thing you know we’re over 1,300 and then finally the bottom falls out and next thing you know you know the s&p 500 is trading under 900 in we have a little spike up back to a thousand before we get another fall all the way down to under 800 and then we have a nice spike up again and
It looks like okay we’re coming out of this and we get over 900 and then we have the one last grand in of them all fall which knocked everybody pretty much stock market that was in at that particular time because it was just like this is just ridiculous this is too painful and sp500 falls under 700 okay incredible absolutely incredible when you go back and you look
At that stock chart because there were plenty of times and the stock market was bouncing back and it was looking like okay we’re up up in a way now and it was just got worse and it was up up and away and it just got worse several times that happened and so i think when we’re looking at the current situation i think we got to take that into context that yeah the
Markets bounced back you know 5,000 6,000 points boom boom boom real quick yeah that might just we just might be a part of a much bigger fall let’s just put it that way okay the stock market was was kind of doing what it should’ve done okay it felt super dramatically because we had a super dramatic situation where it was like oh my gosh alton some bronies taken
Off the rona’s situation we’re gonna have to shut down the whole us economy oh we’re gonna shut down the whole world economy oh my gosh you know this is this is you know devastation like this is crazy and so stock market kind of reacted the way it should have it was the fastest stock market drop and you know in history literally there was no other time you can go
Back to throughout history with a stock market felton that much that fast it was like 22 trading days and the market have fallen like 35% plus it was incredible but honestly when you look back at it it should have done that because we just had a shocked situation and we were coming off of a pretty weird let’s be honest we were coming off on an elevated market that
Was pricing in a great twenty and all sudden we got the worst case scenario so that was warranted but in my opinion after that happen we should have hovered around that same price we should have hovered under 20,000 for you know the next week or two until we got to see kind of how much longer things we’re gonna have to go cuz there was still some optimism that maybe
We could open up an april remember remember trump even mentioned you know oh maybe we’ll open up for easter and then that started to fade and then i was like maybe we’re looking more toward like may or june before we get the economy open and i think that was when we should have seen another big decline in the market toward the back half of march or really like the
Beginning of april i think that’s and i think we should i think we should have just seen the market go down and down and down and down and in my opinion where let’s say the dow jones industrial average should be i think the dow should be right now at 16 k to like 17 k i think that’s where the market should be right now i think to be trading at 23,000 24,000 like
The dow jones industrial average is i think it’s just ridiculous and i think you know the market will will readjust keep in mind stocks can be overvalued for a certain amount of time the stock market in general can be overvalued for a certain amount of time but eventually things get priced accurately or get priced under priced okay and i can tell you at 16,000
17,000 i would be a buyer of the market because i would be looking a lot of these companies and despite the devastation we have to go through over the next few years and we’re have to work through that i would be saying you know what there’s some great deals out there that i’ve got to go ahead and take advantage but right now in this market when we’re a doubt 23
24 thousand when the s&p 500 is around 2,800 when the nasdaq is down what 6 7 percent year-to-date when we’re looking at that type of market it doesn’t make me say i’ve got to go buy stocks right now it really doesn’t it’s just not that type of market it’s just the stock market isn’t giving us any good deals and you know you can make an argument that even if
The market was at 16k 17k we still might not be getting that created deals considering this could take three years to climb out of this or five years to climb out of this if you know i think it’s i think it’s really hard to say these companies earnings gonna be back to you know 2019 levels in 2021 i think that’s a that’s a fairy tale maybe 2022 but i think that’s
Even a question i think if you’re thinking about these companies getting back you know not all them will get back but the ones that will get back to those 2019 levels you could be looking at like 2023 for a lot of these companies and that’s why i feel the market should be dramatically dramatically lower than this and i think it will happen i think we will get this
Stock market crashed once business that opens back up and people start figuring out whoa okay it’s not back yeah we open but our business is down considerably and we can’t see getting that much better anytime soon i think when that happens that will be the moment when the stock market will start dropping again and it will shock everybody because it keep in mind a
Lot of a lot of traders had pegged this as a situation where oh my gosh all the bad news is gonna start coming out the market is going to go lower right all the bad news start to come out unemployment rates all the jobless claims gdp declines all these numbers started to come out and where’s the market gone up and up and up and so now a lot of people are figuring
Okay once the economy opens back up we’re gonna continue to roar higher things are gonna be great things are going to be up and on the up and up and i think that’s the moment when things are actually gonna fall in a massive massive way because then there’s no more like not just looking out the window then you got to come out from your dungeon you got to look around
You got to say our business is 50 percent of what it was and you know our hope is it can be like 60 percent of what it was maybe next year and at that moment that’s when these analysts have to start taking down their numbers and that’s when things will get very interesting but there just aren’t any good deals in the stock market right now but you know what if the
Stock market won’t give you a good deal you know i will okay i’ll give you guys a good deal okay april 17th through 19th we got a huge deal coming on the private stock group you ever want to learn exactly what i look for in stocks as well as how to build successful portfolios go ahead and make sure you put in your email down there and be the pin comment and you
Know get in the private group with us we’re have a semi-annual sale it’s gonna be huge you get to be part of the discord chat you get to see all the stocks i’m buying and selling all things like that so i hope you guys enjoy that deal thank you for watching and have a great day
Transcribed from video
Stock Market Crash part 2 is Coming! Get Ready! By Financial Education
