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How’s it going everybody this is beat the bush so i sold all my stock and in this video i’m gonna talk about why i did that right now i’m at about 22% stock and i am getting very very close to just liquidating all of it i might be doing this on monday or tuesday or the coming week but as you guys know i was roughly at 78% stock and i dramatically sold a lot of it
Right around friday or so and now i’m down to about 22 percent if it inches up a little bit more on monday or tuesday i definitely will be liquidating all of it now why did i do that in my previous videos there are certain instances where i am more and more certain about a certain situation that i would actually go out on the limb and make a video about it saying
I sold certain thing for example i sold tesla stock i sold bitcoin right those happen to be really lucky calls and somehow i think i’m a genius investor just because i sold near the top and profited a lot from it but this is another instance where i feel like the risk versus reward is just not worth it and that is when i decide to sell everything let me impress
Upon you guys this is a varity of this situation 22 percent unemployment rate this is an extremely high unemployment rate if you look at every single person in the united states only one out of two people is working right now and when you have people not working people cannot pay for rent people cannot even paper groceries and when this happens people are not doing
Discretionary spending they are not going out buying handbags they are not vacationing they are not going to hotels with all this lockdown this is a serious serious issue so why is the stock market so high right now it’s because of the fed monetary policies of all the easy money going on so the fact that it’s so high right now is because of some market manipulation
By the government the manipulation here is gonna go on for some time and we don’t know how much more because they promised all we’re gonna do minute amount of quantitative easing so the bet for selling is really saying that i think the market forces is eventually gonna realize oh my gosh things are really really bad and it’s just going to it might overwhelm the all
The easy money going on out there the risk dramatically increases and then people are gonna sell so this is what i’m thinkin might happen i am not completely sure like every single time i make these videos of these prediction videos i am not sure but i am sure enough that i would actually sell my own stock here is the way i see it you might have ten percent gain
Right if you have another ten percent gain we’re total about down twenty percent from the peak right now on the snp so at most right it’s reasonable that you might think that it might come up another ten percent it’s completely unreasonable that to think that it’s gonna go up to right where the peak was in other words go up another 20 percent because that would
Mean that this infection is not going on at all people are still you know they went back to work and stuff so completely unreasonable to go up 20 percent so let’s just say it’s gonna go up ten more percent which is somewhat unreasonable already but there’s a huge case that to me at least because i have in my mind this amount of probability that certain things gonna
Happen let’s say fifty percent of the time because i’m kind of unsure it might come up ten percent but there’s also fifty percent of the time that i think it might go down 30 percent 50 percent and because the risk versus reward here is kind of uneven unbalanced i don’t want to risk a lot of money to gain a little bit of money because i want to risk some amount and
Have a high probability of success i want to put money in where i think i’m gonna gain like 40 percent versus lose ten percent right the other way around right now the stock market to me is you’re gonna see to lose more than you would gain in the next few months so that’s why i felt like it’s time to sell most of it at least and because i am unsure that’s why i’m
At 22 percent or so because i realize as an investor myself i might be wrong so that’s why i go in steps i sold half of you know certain thing i liquidated most of other things including i rm bac and at&t although those were actually in my brokerage account and i’m gonna have to pay short-term capital gains on those but usually for short-term long-term capital
Gains stuff i try to not focus too much on how much taxes i’m gonna pay i need to focus more on if it’s gonna increase or decrease right now because if you put too much pressure on yourself to try to hold something long-term like 12 months or something just so that you can pay less taxes for long term capitalist gains i think that is a huge mistake for me what i’ve
Learned to do myself is to you know look at the taxes last i need to trade for profit now so the taxes is a concern but that is something i’m gonna look at sort of like an afterthought type of thing since i invested in steps lower and lower i pretty much broke even i would say i’m down a few percent or so up a few percent here and up down a few percent there so in
Terms of the total portfolio value i’m somewhere back around february so it’s not a big deal for me to sell right now it’s kind of like i can say i’m settling right now turn the clock back to february and hold my portfolio value there let all this craziness happen so why the change of thought here because i initially thought the policies the government policies the
Way that the united states is gonna open up is gonna be a little different than how it transpired what i thought would have happened is that the stock market might trickle up slowly maybe at the fastest within six months or so but it came up way too fast when it comes up way too fast is usually why i sell the same thing happened with bitcoin it came up way too fast
The same thing happened with tesla it came up way too fast so i feel like the equity value right now it’s kind of rich for sp500 in addition to this it seems like the government or policies or whatever they want to reopen the economy but they did not put in the proper measures to keep people from getting sick so because of this it is premature to reopen if people
Are gonna get sick again i feel like what’s gonna happen is they’re gonna try to reopen our rate of infection as a whole country it’s gonna go up and up and they’re gonna see that oh my gosh more and more people are dying so now we’re gonna close it up again when this happens it’s just prolonging the amount of time at which the economy cannot move at all when you
Prolong this there’s a whole bunch of things that can happen people are out of jobs twenty-two percent unemployment rate people cannot pay their rent people cannot pay their mortgages discretionary spending is gonna go way down people are not gonna buy a bunch of gadgets and whatnot if they don’t have a job people are having a hard time even buying food of course
In my mind whenever i take in all this news i assign a certain probability of something happening before i’d act what i noticed myself doing is i usually act a little bit before things happen probably a week or two so even though i’m making this video i am not 100% sure by the way and i can’t be your investment advisor i can’t say you know buy or sell your stock
This is just what i’m personally doing and what i have noticed me doing is i sell and i’m like i’m just complaining to everybody how come the stock market’s acting so crazy right now just like over in february middle of february i’m like why is this stock market so crazy how come there’s no sell-off right now and yeah eventually that happened so will this happen i
Don’t know after i release this video maybe it might take a week two weeks maybe a month maybe it might never happen before the stock market goes down but let’s say if it goes up by 10% which whatever right if it keeps on going up another 10% it’s just crazy to me it’s already crazy to me that it like rebounded so much and i caught my money back when it’s so high
And then now i’m just basically breakeven the other day when i went to the supermarket it’s sort of like me taking a temperature of the outside this is also important because it lets me see how people are behaving when you go out to the supermarket when i go out okay they put these markers on the floor yes they have these little glass panels where in front of all
The cashiers but when i go into the supermarket the aisles are you know yay wide and if you want to pass by someone you are coming within six feet of someone they really need to make all those aisles one way only because there’s no good way to pass someone without coming really close and i remember when i was standing in the corner minding my own business there
Happens to be some dirty baskets behind me and someone wanted to reach to get them and because they were right behind me they came up pretty close like one or two feet within myself this is not a complaint by the way i just feel like people are not used to social distancing people are not used to like oh someone is over there i’m gonna stay away from them because
I personally found myself coming too close to someone like i had to like oh just kidding i remember now because if you want to get by someone you think you can just kind of sneak by even if you get like within three or four feet so i think social distancing is not a well practice thing and people are not used to this just yet i say 95% of people are wearing masks
Right now but i think in other parts of the country in the united states not enough people are wearing masks you got a whole bunch of people that’s refusing to wear a mask and i think united states as a country it’s kind of like base around personal freedom right so you can do whatever you want and because of this people are gonna refuse putting on masks people
Are gonna refuse certain scientific studies and saying that you should do so and so so because of this i feel like the infection rate it’s not gonna go down as rapidly as it went up right now it looks like it’s gonna take like six months the way the slow way that is trickling down initially i said i’m gonna hold for two years and now all of a sudden i sell this
Is not a long-term trader right because i said i was gonna hold for one or two years all of a sudden i’m selling this is because of the way things are right now i look at things and i don’t see that these are the way i would have opened the country up myself if i were in charge right the way they’re opening right now we are almost guaranteed a second third fourth
Wave even and because of this the economy downturn is gonna get drawn out a lot longer than other countries it seems like it’s a very uncoordinated way of opening up the country where the policies is not where i would personally want them to be you know to ensure people are not getting more and more sick so that we don’t get the second third wave and when you have
A high chance of second or third wave this means that we’re gonna prolong this economy downturn and when this happens people are already suffering with just one month even though we’re getting the stimulus money and everything if it prolongs for a couple more months i feel like the market pressures will really overrun whatever policy whatever quantitative easing
Easy money that we have and that is when people will see the earnings is really terrible we have meat shortages we have people at the meat processing plants getting sick we have people in the government getting sick as well so it’s just getting everywhere people are hoping for the better people want things to get better i personally want things to get better too
But i don’t think it’s gonna go there that is why i sold vaccine is not gonna come very quickly it’s gonna take nine more months or so probably new year’s time and what i learned from the phases they have to do in the drug trials for the vaccine drug trials is they don’t know if this is gonna kill a lot of people so what they do is they introduce it to a handful
Of people and then the next phase they introduce it to an order of magnitude more people and then if that goes out just fine then the phase three is i think thousands of people so second order of magnitude higher and then i guess after that then they might decide based on the data if they’re gonna release it to the masses of millions of people so you really do
Need these different phases just so that you can catch problems with the vaccine if it’s gonna kill people instead of helping them so i think that’s why those vaccines take so long even though they have the vaccine ready already it’s mainly the trials in humans that takes the most time therapeutics it doesn’t really help all that much it helps a little bit instead
Of 20 people dying you have 15 people dying so it’s like improvement of 25 percent so instead of let’s say they administer this to every single person that has severe symptoms instead of a hundred thousand people dying you have 75 thousand people dying so this is not like a magic bullet that would cure everything so even if we have these therapeutics it’s not thin
Compared to having a vaccine so having that will it’s it helps but then it’s not going to you know allow people to continue life as usual and just go oh if i get it i’ll just take whatever medicine and then i’m gonna be cured no that’s not the case it’s just gonna help you a little bit this is why i’m selling myself this is not a recommendation to sell your shares
Of stock this is just how i feel about things risk versus reward is very uneven even with the mucking of the government monetary policies i hope you guys enjoyed this video and take this with a grain of salt don’t forget to give me a like on this video comment down below let me know if you’re a hundred percent cash because i’m i’m pretty much getting there very
Very quickly i might be doing on monday or tuesday or the following week if you guys want to stay up to date i try to announce this on my patreon now if guys are interested in supporting this channel check out my weeble referral link down in the video description below this is a free trading app and i personally use it to check out the after-hour trading prices
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Transcribed from video
I Sold All My Stocks By BeatTheBush
