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Well folks i might have made a little mistake here okay so you know a few hours ago i did a video called ttf stocks about to go insane basically you know talking about how you know it’s going to be all you know wild wild time in tdcf stock price for the next few days essentially with uh obviously the earnings coming kind of going into that but in that video essentially
I we we looked at the numbers and you know i gave my opinion on this december quarter essentially i said yeah you know i think they’ll probably come you know in line with with those numbers somewhere right around there okay but then i started to do a little deeper digging and so basically when it comes to a stock like tdcf i’m usually not too caught up in in the
Short term numbers around like a quarterly uh you know revenue number something like that i’m trying to make sure companies are on on pace for yearly numbers and so uh you know i don’t usually get that that far into things okay but then i was looking at that and i was like 51 it seems it seems a little a little strange there and i was thinking about it and i was
Like is it possible they could actually smash that number okay and so i was i was thinking about that and that’s where i kind of get into this thought process i’m like wait are they really going to come in line are they going to come in and smash this number okay and so we’re only a few hours from from tdcf numbers being reported so i thought this was interesting
The first part is their last quarter they did 58.8 million dollars of revenue right now in that third quarter there was a quarter in which uh i think their their club business was pretty decent the uh the private label business was not very good in that particular quarter but i was the more i was thinking about it i was like you know 58.8 mil 51 mil it kind of gets
Hard for me to expect that big of a decrease if decrease at all in a sequential quarter now obviously year over year numbers are going to be up massive no matter what right but on a sequential basis i was thinking about this and i was thinking well you know obviously it was a holiday time you know thanksgiving christmas things like that maybe people weren’t eating
As much plant-based foods um and so maybe that’s why the numbers could be a troubling there but i was like i don’t know because i know they’re getting they got increased distribution in the fourth quarter i know they got into new stores i know they’re going to record a good amount of new revenue and new skus that were in stores and so i’m thinking about that and
I’m like man you know i don’t know i you know i i i that gets a little hard to think of okay but the next part i think is even more impactful for this quarter and check this out okay so basically december 22nd 2021 tattoo chef complete the acquisition of a belmont confections okay obviously tattoo chef a leader in plant-based foods today announced december 21st
2021 it completed the acquisition of belmont confections a private label coke manufacturer of snack bars for approximately 18 million dollars of cash in stock belmont specializes in the development and manufacturing of a variety of snack bars a 47 000 square foot facility in ohio expands tattooed chef’s manufacturing capabilities but the thing to understand about
This is this is a private label business okay now what tattoo chef is going to obviously go to with this uh you know facility over time is making their own branded products right and we’ve already seen those uh teased out there last week at the new food convention essentially right the new food expo but at the end of the day this company’s doing revenue today like
They got they got money coming in right now um you know revenue and so this deal closed in the quarter so i’m kind of looking at this and i’m thinking okay how much of this money is going to be recorded in this quarter is it are we talking like a few hundred thousand dollars are we talking about a million are we talking about you know more than a million are we
Talking about a few million because that alone could boost numbers up potentially i just don’t know how much of that revenue is going to be included in this past quarter here since the deal went through during a quarter that’s where things get a little confusion and confusing here and also i don’t know the very specific number on how much this business would even
Do in their fourth quarter i you know i don’t know no one really knows that it could be uh you know five hundred thousand dollars it could be i don’t know three million dollars that’s like that’s a huge question about like like how much they do in a fourth quarter for instance right so i was thinking about that and i was like okay that that’s really interesting it
Knows no doubt this will have helped numbers this past quarter it’s just a question of like are we talking about like hundreds of thousands or are we talking about like high hundreds of thousands are we talking about like millions right so this first part there next part up here i don’t know if you guys remember this but back in may they basically completed their
Acquisition in mexico food company and the karsten tortilla factory as well okay tattoo shop a leader and plant-based products completed the acquisition new mexico foods and the karsten tortilla factory llc the which is called the foods in new mexico for approximately 37 million dollars in cash 37 million dollars in cash okay foods in new mexico produces ready to
Eat mexican food items for both retail and food service this acquisition diversifies tattoo chef manufacturing capabilities expands production capacity and accelerates a company expansion outside of frozen food into ambient products foods new mexico facility in albuquerque currently produces mexican foods including quesadillas burritos and other handheld items as
Well as sauces the second facility in karsten is brand new and will enable the company to have an extensive tortilla manufacturing capabilities as well as be able to customize their existing footprint right and so the idea with this is you know i just got some from the fries uh here tonight i got some of their new burrito products that they don’t even have like the
Labels ready for them but you know sometimes some of these kroger stores they’re kind of making the mistake of putting the product out already and i got lucky and i’m at this friday already had that product and so that’s beautiful that over time they’re going to build out these tattooed chef branded products but this is a these are businesses that are doing revenue
Right now and those are going to be obviously you know three months of business and the question is how much revenue is going to be recorded from these businesses here the the tortilla factory in the new mexico foods company are we talking about you know once again are we talking about 500 000 are we talking about like two million dollars we’re talking about like
Four million dollars of revenue at the end of the day we know this is going to help out revenue um it’s just a question of like how much does it help out revenue in the in this most uh recent quarter and so i was thinking about that as well right and so i’m like dang man you know when i start to think about these numbers i think uh there’s a real possibility they
Could actually um handily beat this revenue number which is the most important metric obviously for tattoo chef by a mile right now margins and honestly profitability and those things those uh you know that’s just not with his business is at if anybody’s judging this company off of that and right now in the short term you’re in the wrong stock this isn’t the stock
For you right uh yo those things are going to be much more important for a tattoo chef down the road improving their margins improving their profitability getting their profitability and ramping that profitability over the coming years right but for right now this is a revenue growth story and so that’s what matters the most when it comes to these earnings and
I’m like man i don’t know it’s a possibility that they could actually smash the these estimates when i think about the sku expansion the store expansion and then these uh these private label deals they’ve done recently i’m like hmm maybe maybe just maybe they actually come in and um you know pretty handily beat that but even more importantly is if they guide they
Might not guide for the whole year 2022 but if they do guidance for this upcoming quarter which i think is a pretty high probability i would call this about a 75 probability they do guidance for 2022. i would call it about a 50 50 if they do guidance for the full year 2022 on this earnings call but i would call this about a 75 chance they give some sort of guidance
For the march quarter now for the march quarter they have growth at 28 and i was thinking about that and i was like think about velocities on how well the product’s moving i was thinking about all the store expansion they have plus more store expansion in this quarter and in this past quarter that’s really going to start to hit in this quarter i was thinking about
The sku expansion they’re getting into stores like target for instance right if you go back to q1 of 2021 they maybe had four or six skews something like that in target stores versus now this company is going to in this in this q1 in a lot of these target stores 20 plus skus so the sku expansion is massive now let’s think about that i was thinking about all these
You know retailers are getting into in a much bigger way i was thinking about the new products they have plus those private label deals that have gone through that will be uh you know in their fully now and i was like dang man you know for instance this quarter is going to have that karsten facility right the tortilla facility new mexico foods business in there
It’s going to have the belmont uh deal in there plus all the new products the new skus the new stores and i was thinking about that and i’m like could could they guide for like a 7 75 to 80 type number i think it’s a possibility when you add up all those things i think i don’t think it’s like crazy to imagine them them you know guiding for something like a 75 to
80 mil type number for next quarter if they do guide and so i’m looking at all this i’m like you know i might be way um i might not be nearly as bullish enough around these these numbers here and and i thought that was just interesting i was like man i got to show this with the folks because um you know it’s very possible that they could actually come in with uh
Pretty nice beats on both of those okay no the next part to understand about this is uh the game that’s going to be played so the next two days when it comes to tattooed chef stock are very important days for the short seller side okay now shorts uh in terms of tattoo chef it’s one of the most shorted stocks in stock market okay so this is the game uh this is one
Of the most shortest stocks in the entire stock market talking about top 25 most shorted stock and so there’s a there’s a game that’s being played and it’s going to be played on a on a high level over the next two days essentially earnings day and the day after earnings day okay very very important days for these short sellers and the reason being is is from the
Long side right the um the core the core longs like myself like like we’re not we’re not selling out of that stock regardless if it goes up down all around like we don’t care we’re not we’re not caching right um but there’s that kind of that little side of folks that might be in the stock that the the shorts are gonna try to get out of right and the last thing
They want to let this stock have happen essentially is for the stock price to get any sort of momentum behind it they do not want that i can tell you if this stock gets any sort of momentum in this bad of a market they’re setting themselves up for some real pain once the whole market actually flips right and once the russell starts coming back whenever that is
That that’s a debate right a week from now a month from now three months from now six months from now that’s a whole debate when the russell starts really you know ramping back up right in the nasdaq as well if i can tell you if this stock starts to get momentum behind it in a scenario like this and could maybe get a little squeeze action not even a big squeeze
Just a little squeeze action in this sort of market that would be that would be pretty devastating on the short side right because the lungs we don’t care like regardless i’m buying this stock in 2022 right i already have a big position in it but if it’s at 13 i’m buying it if it’s at 11 i’m buying and if it’s at nine i’m buying if that’s seven i’m buying it if
It’s at 15 i’m buying it it doesn’t matter like for me anything under 20 i’m buying for tattooed chef right and so that’s that’s kind of an issue that you got you know folks like myself that are just going to accumulate shares and accumulate shares and build our ownership position bigger and bigger take the those shares off the market and then those shares aren’t
Being traded out there right now as a company keeps ramping revenue that’s going to keep attracting more and more investors people that maybe were in the stock in the past that are maybe on the sideline now and they’re looking and they’re like let me see what happens here right also as they get closer and closer to profitability as 22 transpires that’s going to
Attract a whole other group of folks that are like oh baby this is my this might start flipping some profitable quarters in 23. let me get in now before they actually start making profitable quarters right and then you add on top of that analyst there’s going to obviously be a ton of analysts that come on the stock and over the course of this year in my opinion
Where by the end of the year it’s probably going to be anywhere from five to ten analysts covering the stock five in the low end 10 on the high end by the end of 2022 and um so this is going to be an interesting kind of moment for the stock where you got to understand the short sell is going to do everything to try to get no momentum in that stock tomorrow they’re
Going to try to you know just point out anything bad in relation to the earnings and the way the short sellers will talk is if the stock price is going up what they’re going to say they’re going to say oh it’s just going to come back down it’s just a short squeeze or it’s just a one day thing or something like that right and if the stock price goes goes down then
Obviously they’re going to be celebrating and rubbing that obviously in the long’s face and telling everybody hey get out of the stock it’s such a bad stock it’s going to a dollar a share you know it’s just they throw out these these crazy things and that’s what short sellers do and that’s what i’ve you know this is my first rodeo with a heavily a heavily shorted
Stock which tattoo chef is heavily shorted like to to give you some context of how heavily this shorted the stock is those brokerages giving you like a 20 roi if they’re allowed to lend out your shares essentially that’s how insane it has gotten with how heavily shorted the stock is right and so i’m telling you if this stock actually got momentum behind it uh
The move could be very crazy so this in in for the short sellers they’re gonna you gotta understand this is the game for them this is their super bowl they’re gonna pull out anything they’re going to pull out anything to try to get no momentum in the stock that means trying to do anything manipulative they possibly can with trading activity that means trying to
Do anything possible they can with uh you know message boards and anywhere where retail’s at trying to get people to sell out no did you see that bad metric over there oh they missed that number it doesn’t though any way they slice it they’ll they’ll try to bring up something bad right and so you’ve got to understand they’re going to try to you know do that and
Try to get people out of this stock and and for for longs you know it’s nothing to us if it goes down great buy more shares for cheaper or get a bigger ownership position if it goes up great buy more shares for us it literally doesn’t matter stay stay the same stock price stay the same we buy and so um for us it’s it’s nothing right but for i’m telling you for
These these these uh quarterly reports it’s fun for us longs to kind of see the numbers make sure you know the revenue growth is still on tracked and the you know the company product expansions and the store expansion all that stuff right that’s why it’s important for us to listen to conference call and pay attention to these numbers but from the short side it’s
Much more important for them in terms of the stock price tomorrow in the stock price the next day and trying to make sure that stock price goes down by any means necessary and if they can’t get it down you know they could end up they could end up in a real real situation that’s all i’ll say about that they could end up in a real situation when you got a stock this
Heavily shorted um you know you it doesn’t take a lot tulsa and get a little squeezy squeezy and they got to understand that when you’re talking about these sorts of stocks that are heavily shorted okay there are some hedge funds out there that keep an eye keep an eye out okay and if they see a if they see you know let’s say a big beat there you know it’s just
Called a decent sized beat on revenue and they see some momentum it’s nothing for a big fund to come in and just say hmm okay we got something here let’s let’s put uh you know five mil 10 mil in the stock and uh next thing you know you get some some if they want to do that you don’t there’s the squeeze would be insane because 5 mil 10 mil in apple stock is nothing
Right you’re not even gonna see that but i can tell you if somebody also put five million or 10 million dollars in tattooed chef all in a matter of an hour or two uh boy you know the the move would be uh pretty epic and especially when you’re you’re in a volatile time as it is and then also you get uh some more trading action involved where i’ll send some other
Folks start to see and uh it can get real nasty real fast for on the on the short side and like i said for the longs like it doesn’t matter to us it doesn’t matter if the stock goes down we buy more stock stays the same we buy more the stock goes up we buy more it doesn’t matter and so uh you know it’s it’s just uh we’ll see what happens there that’s a whole game
But i can’t wait to really see the revenue numbers that’s kind of what i’m listening looking forward to i’m also looking forward to the conference call although they just did a a conference uh you know a couple days ago so you know when i look at it from that perspective i shouldn’t we shouldn’t get anything shocking news from uh the conference call but i always
Like listen to those anyways it’s just uh always get some good information there so anyways guys much love as always hope you enjoyed this hello tattooed chef squad i know you guys are the silent majority here um and that’s always good that’s always good and uh oh by the way hey if you want some free money check out moomoo my link in the uh pin comment down there
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It’s deposit a hundred dollars but these free three free stocks are deposit with any amount of money so you could do like a dollar and get these stocks free so check out pin comment down there it’s exclusive and it’s only for right now it’s pretty awesome make sure to subscribe the channel much love and have a great day
Transcribed from video
I MIGHT HAVE MADE A MISTAKE W/TTCF STOCK By Financial Education
