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How’s it going everybody does is beat the bush well i try to time the market and i lost out on about 20,000 dollars worth of games before i begin this video is sponsored by we bull from the may 21st promotion i have a winner that i want to announce from there whose user name is did this person want a share of wmt which is walmart valued at a hundred $24 now you
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Description below i still believe that the soccer market has a good potential of it going down i’m gonna outline some of these risks in this video now i’m completely aware that when i try to time the market i may not catch it perfectly there are sayings in the comment section some people like to say scared money don’t make no money and there’s another saying that
Timing the market doesn’t work for most people time in the market is much better than trying to time the market now let me just acknowledge this okay and i’m trying to do something just completely crazy i am going against the normal conventions of what 99% of the investors out there should do so far you can say it didn’t work out for me because after all the stock
Market just kept on going up i sold every single stock i had around me 8th or so it has gone up by about 5% knowing that i have at least 100k of investable assets both in my retirement account and my brokerage account this represents if i had it all invested in the smp 500 which is something i wouldn’t do but if i had all that invested i would have gained about
Twenty thousand dollars just from letting it sit all this time now in reality i actually had a mix of a bunch of other things including roughly thirty percent cash stills so i definitely wasn’t completely invested in in stock market at any point in time and i’m not gonna talk too much about these stocks i held but generally all of them actually went up since i
Sold it so you know i’m just kind of kicking myself a little bit but no not to worrying about it too much in the order of amounts i actually held in descending order i held the most of ixc which is an oil play it went up by 5% bac which is the bank of america went up by 5% irm iron mountain went up by 8% at&t went up by 4% all of this since i sold it so this
Sucks you know at most i thought maybe you might go up by two three five percent which is what is that right now and i said somewhere between five and 10 percent is something i’m willing to accept and if it shoots beyond this i’m gonna be pretty mad at myself for calling it too early of course i’m can’t i’m perfectly but if it keeps on rocketing up you know i’m
Probably gonna have a bad case of fomo and people online can laugh at me all they want but generally from my market timing experience it’s always gonna be like this you will never ever sell it right at the peak and the next day it drops or plummets if it ever happens like this i would feel like oh my gosh i’m lucky to sell right before it drops so what i really
See happening in reality is after i sell yeah the stock market is just gonna keep on going up it might go up for like another month or two and i’m just gonna bang my head and i’m just gonna go oh my gosh i can i miss out on all these games i could have been rich by now or something the fact is when you try to time the market you could get burned like me am i
Getting burned right now because if i held on and then i sold right now you know what if could have right i could have had twenty thousand dollars more and oh my gosh what can i do with all this i wouldn’t even know what to buy with twenty thousand dollars if i were to spend it all today considering i only spend like twelve hundred dollars every single month but
Knowing that i lost twenty thousand dollars or you don’t have to consider this a loss it’s like a loss of potential gains here i want to go back to talk about my conquests of before this is in the context of my bitcoin trade about two years ago my last sale of bitcoin of 49 percent of my holdings was around fifteen thousand seven hundred dollars now after i sold
It around that time bitcoin proceeded to just keep on rauf getting up to around $20,000 and i just kept saying this is just crazy it’s just crazy and i had a lot of people make fun of me in the comment section saying haha you know you sould see you in my lamborghini you know it’s gonna go up to a hundred thousand dollars or whatnot because of my sale you can do
The percentages right $15,000 to $20,000 this is roughly 27% of games that i missed out on so am i going to see me miss out on 27 percent of games i think it’s not as crazy as bitcoin okay the real stock market is not as crazy so i think i might miss out on up to 10% even but i can’t feel too bad about that because my initial principle just sort of multiplied itself
I had like 350 percent gain on that bitcoin trade i put a good amount of money in there and i made a huge amount and i keep on repeating this so you know there’s some confidence factored i have to talk myself into even though in the short term i’m losing a little bit of money 5% or so there’s something that i learned on my bitcoin trade over here is that number
One i can’t time it perfectly number two it can actually take months for my prediction to come to pass so some of you guys out there this is after one month of my sale you’re gonna say hey you know you sold it and right after you sell it the stock market proceeded to just keep on rocketing up i’ve seen this before with tesla with bitcoin after i sale i get made
Fun of and this is not to say that i am all that confident that hey hey you know i’m gonna be right at the end no this is not something like that it’s just acknowledging that this is something that’s gonna happen whenever i make a sale people like to come in and you know just say haha you know in the short term the stock market went up but my time frame for this is
Really a couple of months or so so there’s more time to wait we gotta wait for more data to come out the real reasons why i actually sold you got to wait for all these things to percolate through the market to actually have the market realize that these things is actually gonna affect the economy is actually gonna affect the earnings and i do think that earnings
Is a direct reflection of the stock market because you can’t have stock market price high when you have low earnings i’m gonna talk about my other trade of tesla which is something else i mean very public i put about 20k in this stock a long time ago maybe a year ago or so and i actually made $60,000 profit from this now i sold tesla around $800 you could argue
That oh my gosh it went down to like $350 and now it’s back up to a 850 or something so you know could i have bought at $350 or so yes i could have but you know i just sold out and i’m kind of waiting for it to drop a lot and then i might pick it back up again the thing is this is some lucky trade some crazy crazy good trade here i put $20,000 in and to hope for
Any kind of investment making forex this is just insane but i did the same thing with bitcoin i did the same thing with tesla and i guess i’m gonna let you guys in on what i’m thinking of doing with this huge amount of investment i don’t really care about making this 5% 10% more i can forego this because what i’m trying to wait for is a dramatic drop in the stock
Market 50 percent or so this is the chance for me to put money into the stock market possibly making double so in my calculation this is timing the market after all and it’s not gonna work for 99% of the investors out there but this is what i’d like to do you guys might be wondering what happened to my tv i ex purchase of a thousand dollars in there it’s true i
Only put very little in because i am not super duper confident this is something that i am sort of managing my risk i’m not going to be super crazy and you know putting it all in on black or something so i purchased it around 130 $8.95 t vix and right now it’s at $137 and 69 cents about one percent loss or so and in in between it kind of went up to like five to
Eight percent or so now me mentioning the stock ticker symbol is not an endorsement to buy it or sell it or whatever i am only doing this for entertainment purposes you got a consult your own financial adviser if you’re gonna do any kind of trades i’m only talking about my own trades over here and i don’t recommend you guys to follow what i do the two things i
Think it’s gonna be a cat for the stock market to have dramatic falls that’s coming up in another three to six weeks or so is the quarter to earnings season how do you take a look at this i personally use td ameritrade because they have this nice calendar that says how many stocks are actually releasing their earnings on those particular days and you can see like
A heat map on when this generally happens generally sometime over in mid-july so when they do release this and most companies are gonna report really really terrible earnings and i think this is when the stock market is gonna have a real reaction and this might be a reckoning time where it might drop a lot the second thing that might be a real drag on the stock
Market is when the $600 unemployment thing runs out at the end of july when this runs out a lot of people are not going to earn more money just sitting at home than working they’re actually gonna feel the pain of not having more money they’re actually going to possibly default on rent payments on mortgage payments and my anticipation of the upcoming laws is that
This $600 is not going to get extended when this happens this is when a lot of bad things is gonna happen so you know not that i’m wishing for it to happen but this is what i’m seeing happen so based on this unless these things get patched up then i would probably buy into the stock market with these things looming i still am somewhat confident that the stock markets
Gonna have a dramatic fall come sometime beginning of july let’s say now we still have roughly three or four weeks until this actually happens so until then it could very well that the stock market keeps on trickling up but until then i’m not going to be invested i am just too scared that it’s just gonna plummet it’s a really really fast fall when it happens and
I don’t want to be anywhere near it even if i’m gonna make a few percent more gains right it’s like i don’t want to be there playing a game of chicken it’s like okay okay how how far can i push it and get that little few last percentage before i pull out i don’t know when investors are gonna start freaking out so i rather pull out of this and try to dodge this
Dramatic drop if it ever comes a pass last thing i want to cover is this gdp that’s projected to fall nearly 53 percent in the second quarter annualized probably according to the fed gauge 53 percent gdp drop like 5 percent is a big thing but 53 percent it’s gonna be huge i think this might potentially cause more than 50% drop from the peak of the snp more than
That i am estimating it might be as bad as 80 percent but i don’t want to you know go into this doom and gloom phase or something but this much gdp drop and it looks like things are gonna not bounce back this virus thing is still out there i hope you guys kind of take in the severity of this and you can’t just kind of brush it off because the fed is pumping money
Into it a lot of people like to say don’t fight against a fed or anything yeah this is kind of like betting against the fed but i feel like all these macroeconomic things that’s happening it’s gonna overpower whatever the fed can do remember back in the financial crisis they keep on doing all these monetary easing thing they’re like oh yeah let’s try to doing this
Let’s try doing this the thing is they have tools they have like these threats saying oh yeah we’re gonna do this and prop up the market and then investors go oh no the fed has these tools we better stay invested because you know this is gonna keep on going up because of them i personally think the fed can get overpowered a little bit you know look at the financial
Crisis it does happen so that’s all i have for you for today hope you guys enjoyed it just take my opinions with a grain of salt just kind of integrate it with what you think personally don’t do what i’m doing of course i have to take my own responsibility of not making that potential $20,000 but of course i’m trying to avert losing half of my principal over here
Thanks for watching this video again check out my weibo referral link down below if you guys are interested in getting those two free stocks don’t forget to give me a like on this video comment down below let me know if you’re in the same boat or you’re just laughing at me making these videos saying i sold i sold i sold and then you’re like oh my gosh this guy
Just keeps on saying he sold even though look at the market right now it just keeps on going up right and as always don’t forget to push that subscribe button and ring that bell icon thanks for watching
Transcribed from video
I Just Lost 20 Grand By BeatTheBush
