ELON MUSK JUST SOLD HIS TESLA STOCK!!
Gotta be flipping my flapjacks for jeremy to record a video this late something big has to be going down and oh boy do we got something big going on here okay i gotta give my opinion on this gotta share perspectives gotta give you guys uh you know the truth around this as well as my opinion okay so if you haven’t seen uh yeah big breaking news here just a bit ago
Came out tesla ceo elon musk sold 7.92 million shares of tesla worth around 6.88 billion with a b dollars according to a series of financial filings published tuesday night his transactions occurred between august 5th and august 9th the sec filing revealed following tesla’s 2022 annual shareholder meeting on august 4th in austin texas okay so first off here a
Little sketchy okay a little sketchy so you the the fact that this happened the very day after the shareholder meeting a little strange what i think happened here as somebody that’s followed elon for a long long time and seen everything he’s been up to over time what i believe happened here is i don’t think he wanted you know to sell those shares right before the
Shareholder meeting because here’s a deal if if he had sold shares right before the shareholder meeting that would have been the the subject that would have been what everybody was talking about when it came to the shareholder meeting oh what’s elon got to say about selling tesla stock right and so why not wait till the day after the shareholder meeting and then
You don’t have to deal with that whole circus let’s just call it that okay so that’s what i believe personally happened here so yeah there’s a large amount of money i mean nearly seven billion dollars even for elon musk that’s a lot of money i mean you know it’s not a small amount okay earlier this year tesla and spacex ceo elon musk had said on social media that
He quote had no further tesla sales planned after april 28th well obviously that was a uh let’s just call it false statement because now we got about seven billion dollars worth of sales uh based upon sec filings here okay that week sec filings had revealed musk had been selling a block of shares in his electric car maker worth about 8.4 billion dollars at that
Particular time now a lot of this all centers back to this whole twitter situation which is the buyout you know elon’s want to do with twitter which i’ve always been against i’ve been 100 against the the twitter deal waste of time waste of space if you’re you know elon could make a way better in my opinion social media platform of some kind by using the money he was
Gonna use buying twitter and doing something else with it twitter is you know i i try not to even go on that thing it’s just a mess okay and i think you know almost all you guys maybe a few you absolutely love twitter and you use it every day and you think it’s the greatest thing i think most of you guys understand like twitter is a mess and i don’t think anybody
Can fix that even the great elon okay and so i’ve always been against that i thought it’s a waste of time and here we are now we’re in another situation involving elon musk which is going to have to lead to a lot of questions now does elon believe in tesla why is he selling all these shares why would he sell tesla stock to put money into twitter does he feel like a
Twitter’s a better roi opportunity than tesla is he just looking for a reason to sell tesla stock this leads to so many rumors so many thoughts so many worries now all because of this uh twitter deal okay and this is just what’s going on okay no somebody tweeted at elon and says are you done selling elon musk says yes but when you just said you are weren’t planning
Any more sales a few months ago and then you sell you know seven billion dollars roughly worth of stock people are going to take your yeses like maybe in the hopefully unlikely event that twitter forces this deal to close and some equity partners don’t come through it is important to avoid emergency sale of tesla well this is kind of an emergency sale anyways of
Tesla okay let’s just call it what it is so you know i i knew i knew this i i knew it from the start man i knew this was going to have problems written all over and sure enough look at this you know come on man come on no this was a good i thought this was a good comment here somebody says you know what will you do if you’re not forced to buy twitter and that’s a
Good question right well now he’s got seven billion dollars to say sitting on the sideline what do you do with that money um are you going to put that money back in tesla stock if this deal doesn’t have to go through right and if you don’t put the money back in tesla stock then why not do you not believe in tesla at that point why not put the 7 billion back in
Right and so this leads is going to lead to another series of questions right around if the deal doesn’t go through hey elon you you’re gonna you’re gonna buy back those shares you sold tesla and then if he doesn’t buy back those shares of tesla then everybody’s gonna be looking at elon and saying elon you sold nearly seven billion dollars of stock you didn’t do
The deal with twitter why not why aren’t you buying those shares back i thought you’re such a big believer this is the problem with a deal like this it leads to more distrust it leads to more confusion it leads to more drama and it’s exactly exactly what is playing out here right in front of us okay now in regards to tesla right and you know everybody’s looking
At this and like oh boy what’s going to be what’s going to happen to the stock price okay and i you know as a shareholders company i’ll give my opinion on kind of how i think about this and we’ll talk about all those different things in valuation we’re going to go through all that okay but here’s the kind of this in my opinion there’s three scenarios i can see
Playing out uh let’s call it tomorrow and over the course of this week in my personal opinion in regards to tesla okay now this one i think a little more of a long shot but it’s a possibility this is scenario one this is a scenario that everybody’s gonna flip out tomorrow and be like oh my gosh you know elon’s selling a bunch of tesla shares maybe he’s gonna sell
More yeah he said he’s not going to sell anymore but you know we’ve seen this story play out before maybe he’s going to sell more in a month from now a couple months from now something like that right so it’s going to lead to fear and fear and fear so this is a scenario that could play out and the stock goes to like 750 bucks or so right now that’s where the stock
Just was back on july 19th so it’s not like that was that long ago i mean that’s just a few weeks ago let’s keep that in mind okay and so you know you think about it like this right when in regards to tesla stock you got a lot of people that are long-term shareholders this news coming out today or any of the big bulls the long-term shareholders of tesla going to
Sell at tesla tomorrow absolutely not okay but the fact is tesla’s stock price is moved very heavily by swing traders and uh you know people doing a lot of different activity could be calls can be puts you know when people get in getting out shorting stock having to buy back shares like you know the short-term movements in tesla matter in a significant way for the
Short-term stock price right because of all these short-term moves people are making and so now you’ve got a scenario where there’s potentially a lot of fear in the market so you could have some people that were maybe swinging this one thinking there was a you know a bunch more upside here the stock has already lost momentum over the last few trading days okay the
The stock clearly has lost momentum it topped about 925 we’re down to 849 now so it was already losing momentum and now you have this whole situation that definitely gives let’s call it more room to potentially downside there so that’s scenario when everybody flips out and then we’re s750 which is where this talk was just a few weeks ago okay scenario two this in
My opinion is the most realistic scenario that’s going to play out here with tesla stock and that’s in which a tesla stock tomorrow over the next couple trading days goes to somewhere in the high 700s like 780 range something in there that’s where the stock was at the end of july roughly and that’s a scenario where it sells off because you know there’s definitely
Some fear you lose some momentum when you’re already losing momentum maybe the market’s weakening a little bit you know and there’s definitely a scenario that can play out right let’s say cpi is not the best or something like that that’s definitely a scenario where you can see the stock is 780 pretty quickly and it loses you know for tesla this thing is tesla for
This stock to lose or gain 50 to 100 a share it does it all the time i mean you look at these moves in tesla stock over just a period of a couple days or a couple weeks i mean this stock moves 50 to 100 all the time so in a massive news article like this where everybody’s like oh my gosh ah you know i’m selling seven billion dollars you know to get this baby down
To 780 or something that’s where the stock was just a few weeks ago that’s there’s no there’s nothing hard about that that’s probably the most realistic scenario uh of of these three scenarios okay now the the third scenario this might shock people okay it might shock people i mean really shock people that this is even a scenario but it is a scenario i’d call it
A little bit of a longer shot but it is a scenario okay and then would be a situation here where the stock price actually goes up okay now i think there would need to be two things one is there would have to be a thought process in a way this is pitched where it is looking at it from the perspective of like oh elon’s not going to sell any more shares if the deal
Doesn’t go through maybe he’s going to spend a bunch of money on buying the stock back now which is going to help the stock go up right and then let’s imagine a scenario where cpi comes in uh let’s call it just much better than at wall street had anticipated so the market pumps in general plus you have potentially a positive spin put on this situation somehow on
Uh by wall street that’s definitely a potential right and we know there’s a lot of wall street money in the stock nowadays you know many years ago this was a stock that was very retail retail controlled this stock that’s gone and that’s long gone for a long time now because it became such a big market cap this stock is controlled by wall street okay and so yeah
Is it a scenario where the stock go up yeah if we get you know great cpi the market flies high and this is spun in an angle that it’s like oh you know elon’s gonna buy the shares back now and we’re gonna have a seven billion dollar buy order coming in once you know the twitter deals go through like i said i think it’s a little bit of a longer shot but you can’t
Deny the fact that it’s at least a scenario to play out it would be a scenario that would shock everybody because there is a scenario you know everybody’s expecting the stock to go down tomorrow and the rest this week everybody no one’s expecting the stock to go up and we know wall street can be a little crazy sometimes and just when everybody’s expecting one
Thing you get another thing so like i said this is a long shot scenario but it is a scenario nonetheless okay now in regards to tesla’s valuation here so the stock trades obviously rich right if you’re going to look at it based upon any other automaker even any other let’s just call it average stock in the stock market right trades at 104 trailing p e it trades
At a forward p of 73. so forward p is basically looking at you know what’s expected earnings over the next four quarters trailing p is looking at the last four quarters okay and so that’s very very rich compared to the market in general you know market in general usually trades at a trailing p of 20 range ford p of 15 17 something like that that’s what you should
Usually expect to pay for stock but tesla trades rich because it has an unincredible story behind it it has uh margins that are just tearing it up it has a revenue story as long as i can see for the next let’s just call decade or so and so for those reasons the stock deserves a big you know kind of trades in a multiple right also do keep in mind that this stock is
Trading actually far cheaper than any time we’ve seen in recent history other than you know when the whole market had tanked essentially in june right i mean if we go back to june 30th in 2021 the stock was trading at 672 trillion p 161 forward pe right and think about this the market cap was lower than than it is today and yet it was trading far away richard so
How does that happen well it’s just tesla blowing the doors off of profitability right and completely eating through the trailing pe and the forward p and just being far more profitable and expect to be far more profitable than really anybody anticipated back then right if we go back to september 30th 2021 it was trained at a 401 trailing p and 104 ford p if we go
Back to december 31st of 2021 there’s a 343 trailing p 121 4p so the fact is i mean if you look at tesla stock is trading for you know pretty much the cheapest on valuation metrics that we’ve seen it ever trade at doesn’t mean it can’t go down it’s just you know there’s there’s no shortage of buyers out there for tesla stock because they see the revenue numbers they
See the profitability they see the margins that just get better and better and better and better and uh also has an unbelievable long-term story here and so i think a lot of people look at this and they’re like yeah the whole elon must sale but does it really distract from what tesla is going after and where their real opportunity is right so i think that’s the way
A lot of folks look at it right now it becomes a little more of an ominous i guess we can say thing when you have somebody like elon musk who back at the back at the end of 2021 had said he was predicting macri he said predicting macroeconomics is challenging to say the least he said my gut feel is maybe around spring or summer of 2022 but not later than 2023 in
Regards to basically somebody was asking them when the next recession was going to be okay here we are we’re in a recession right and i know you know the government’s going to say this and certain people are going to say oh no we’re not a recession dude you have two quarters of negative gdp you’re in a recession right never mind the fact that consumer sentiment’s
About the lowest we’ve literally ever seen it in history of of that survey which is incredible right so we’re in this we’re in this time period here where you know i i hate to say it but he he’s right on the button we’re in a recession right and like i said they’re going to try to make all these things oh no no no dude we’re in a recession that’s just a bottom
Line here and there’s a question is how big is the recession going to be how deep is it going to be that’s the only question you know do we start to climb out at the end of this year or is it do we have to wait to 2023 that’s all a question right but it’s an ominous signal when you see an elon musk selling a ton of shares and when this was his feeling okay and
Here’s what makes it even worse back in june back in june elon musk said he basically had a super super bad feeling about the economy okay and this was back when they were going to cut staff by about 10 and we’ve seen tesla do some layoffs we’ve seen elon musk talk bad about the economy several times now at this point in time and then if you see him selling
Seven you know roughly seven billion dollars of shares you start to look at all this and you’re like is he selling because he wants to just raise a bunch of cash because he feels like either tesla stock’s gonna go down a ton or there’s gonna be other business opportunities out there and ventures that he can get into and uh you know as we know if you go through a
Deep bad recession which that that’s a whole debate is if we’re gonna go into a big deep bad recession right like great financial crisis type scenario right but we do know what is what is king in that scenario there’s only one thing that’s king cassius king okay cash is king if you were to go through this type of scenario well shoot if elon musk doesn’t have to do
This twitter deal and you know he’s got seven billion dollars sitting on the sideline hmm man there could be a lot of attractive deals out there maybe let’s say let’s imagine a scenario where tesla stock falls 50 or something like that because it’s some huge recession and people aren’t ordering nearly as many teslas because the economy is in a bad place whatever
Okay let’s just say that was a scenario well then he can buy back shares for obviously substantially cheaper prices than what he sold that right and so that just kind of gives you a little more of an like i said it’s more of an ominous feel and kind of a scary feeling when you have somebody if he had never spoke bad about the economy then you wouldn’t have any of
This but when you you know you’re talking down in the economy and you sell then people are like oh boy he’s got to be prepping for something right like i said this all goes back to that whole twitter drama and the whole twitter deal right that’s what it all comes back to right to that insult to injury here’s the deal the stock market was the worst stock market for
The first half of the year in 50 years okay and 50 flipping flapjacking years actually over 50 years that was the worst first half for the stock market we had basically january through june since 1970 okay and so yeah you have elon musk saying all that stuff about the economy and the recession dot dot dot and uh you have a stock market that’s showing you trying to
Show you the future right because the stock market’s usually looking out three to nine months in the future and um yeah it causes more fear and panic i guess you could say in the market and those sorts of things in regards to stock okay no in regards to me personally okay obviously i’m a tesla shareholder and have been for you know many many years um you know
For me personally the way i look at this okay is i don’t care literally if elon buys seven billion dollars tomorrow or sells seven billion for me personally i don’t care because i uh you know i i see tesla going to where tesla’s going to go over the coming years okay do i think there’s a possibility that elon could be trying to hedge a little bit and trying to
Cash up in case he thinks you know things could get much worse in the financial markets it’s definitely a possibility that’s just uh what i call like flipping a coin and just trying to say uh maybe this is maybe that um but for me personally it doesn’t it doesn’t make a difference and i think if you’re a true tesla shareholder i don’t think you really necessarily
Care about this you’re running your numbers on what you think tesla’s revenues are going to over the coming years what you think their margins are going to be what you think their net income is going to be and what you think they should command for 4p trailing p based upon those sorts of growth rates and where you think that net income is going over time so for
You you also likely shouldn’t care about elon like it’s interesting it’s cool to watch and pay attention to but for making a buying or selling deci you know decision for tesla stock based upon elon musk buying the stock or selling the stock i think is a little misguided you need to be running your revenue projections your net income projections your margin
Projections out for future years and then kind of figuring out and saying you know what uh you know tesla’s a great deal i need to buy more shares or i need to just hold what i have or you know if you need to sell you need to sell but it should not be based upon what elon musk is doing or not doing with his tesla stock right that’s just my personal opinion otherwise
You’re getting into more of a trading mentality of like i got to get in got to get out oh elon’s doing this oh gotta get in oh i gotta get out of tesla stock oh we might be going down so let’s get out of tesla stock uh oh it’s starting to go up again let’s get in and then you start forming like a trader mentality brain right in and for at least my folks that
Watch my channel you guys are supposed to be long-term investors right and kind of viewing these things on multi-years out and you know taking your profits if you think your stocks you know overvalued or fairly valued you got somewhere else to put the money fair play uh but for judging off these short-term things a buying and selling decision is usually a mistake
Ultimately in the end and it just causes you to go more and more down the let’s just call it the trading rabbit hole which this whole stock market right now is rigged to make you more into a trader which we know you know almost everybody fails at being a trader there’s a few select ones that can make it but almost everybody fails at being a trader but this is a
Sort of market drama stocks dropping people not making money this is type of market where people start saying oh man maybe i should become a trader right and there’s a few that can make it but most just can in that game hope you guys enjoy this video as always if you didn’t know i got a brand new channel it’s called jeremy lafave makes money you could literally
Type that in youtube check it out i only got 10 videos up there so far i actually just made a video uh here earlier today on that channel so i hope you guys enjoy that one thanks for everybody that subscribed over there i appreciate you guys much love as always don’t forget to subscribe and have a great day
Transcribed from video
ELON MUSK JUST SOLD HIS TESLA STOCK!! BUY NOW!? By Financial Education
