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Well howdy there folks and welcome into today’s video i want to show you a lot in this video i want to show you uh some very key levels that were just hit in the market overall in the stock market and why these specific levels matter and what this means for the market kind of going forward and this is the second time this has happened essentially i also want to
Discuss in today’s video why i keep buying even um you know with everything that’s going on in the market and we’re obviously in a situation where there’s potentially other indexes could go into bear market as well and certain things could could transpire here like why do i keep buying like for instance this past week i put another 50k in the market um you know
We’ll discuss that as well which i think is an important subject when you’re in a bear market when you’re in a down trending market that’s getting absolutely torn up and you keep buying and it’s like like why even keep buying like why not wait a few months or or wait till the end of this year or something like that so we’ll get into that as well hope you guys enjoy
This video okay first off here i want to discuss the fact that this is arguably the worst april i ever remember um since i’ve been in the stock market i’ve been in the market for about 14 years now and i don’t ever remember in april this bad i’ll just be honest so far this month okay we’re not even to the end of the month yet the nasdaq’s down 10.67 percent 10.67
This month you know i just don’t ever remember uh in april this bad it’s it’s a disaster out there an absolute disaster i mean 10 10.6 down would be a awful year for the market right if the nasdaq was down 10.6 percent in a year that would be awful this is this month okay this is this month and the worst part of this whole story is we still got all the big texts
Pretty much to to report earnings okay and so you know we can we can hope those will be good earnings or or maybe hope they’ll be bad and we just rip the the rest of this band-aid off of this market essentially but um it’s very very clear the investors in the market wall street right they are not putting money in risk assets and especially when you see the nasdaq
Now keep in mind when it comes to nasdaq and this is very important to remember when you’re thinking about the nasdaq very very important is that nasdaq is not just comprised of growth stocks and tech stocks and those sorts of stocks when you start going through what the nasdaq consists of you’re going to see so many stocks that have nothing to do with tech actually
It’s not like the old school days where the nasdaq was just some crazy high growth stocks actually there’s a ton of like stable companies in there now that actually have very very low growth so if the the nasdaq 100 was actually comprised of high growth stocks in like true tech tech type stocks like it was back in the day i mean the market would probably be down
15 or 20 so far this month when it comes to the nasdaq okay and so there was something kathy wood pointed out a few months ago and i hadn’t really looked at the full nasdaq 100 in a while and then i looked at and i was like oh my gosh yeah she’s right there like it’s not your uh grandfather’s nasdaq nowadays let’s put it that way and so the fact that this baby’s
Down this much yeah this is about the worst april uh like i said the worst april i can remember at least it’s a disaster s p 500 is down about seven percent so far this month um which once again is just awful you know yeah just just you know that’s and that’s an awful month you know she’s it’s just vicious if this is another uh you know down week for the market
Then the s p 500 is going to finish down double digit percentages and you very rarely see the s p 500 finish down double digits percentages in a month and you know if this is another rough week this upcoming week the nasdaq’s going to be down 12 to 14 in a month that’s um that that’s pretty darn crazy let’s put it that way okay now what is also simultaneously going
On is the vix is going through the roof right now okay this is also looking at the just the month of april what’s happened to the vix and the vix has gone up 42 and the reason being is there’s just so much volatility in the market in basically if you see the market going down the way it is the nasdaq s p everything the russell just understand the vix is usually
Almost always going to be up in those sorts of situations that’s just how this the the market transpires okay and so the market’s starting to get real shaky now keep in mind a few months ago right a few months ago we were looking at vix that was probably 36 37 a couple months ago okay this was uh shortly after the whole russia ukraine situation or whatnot now
We’re looking at a vix that’s actually far lower than that yet the indexes are starting to reach levels uh they were at back then and so it’s very interesting to see that we’re not even at that crazy fear time right now but yet the indexes are just getting absolutely leveled right now okay now to add kind of insult to injury mortgage rates just hit a 12-year high
And um i think this is scaring the market and i think the market’s going very heavily to cash right now and i’ll explain i’m going to show you something here that’s going to show you that right now investors are putting money in cash okay and then with mortgage rates spiking like that i think you know first off i am of the belief that uh real estate is going to
Slow massively start in the summer okay i think we might have a another month or two of kind of some some last like um let’s call it uh panic cells type type or i shouldn’t call paint excel panic buys right where people are gonna try to keep buying before uh mortgage rates go up anybody that’s in the market right now are really gonna get the pressure put on them
Like hey we gotta we’re gonna buy now because you know mortgage rates are going up and up and up so that could last for a couple months but essentially this summer i think things are gonna start to weaken in a major way mortgage rates going up this much and there’s a there’s kind of a fallacy that’s told out there right now right and actually i even heard my dad
Say this one night you know he was talking about like how he used to pay like i don’t know 8 or 10 mortgage rate right and um and folks talk about that back in the day but what they continue to miss is the fact that homes are triple quadruple five times the value that they were back then for like a simple starter home right and so and and wages haven’t gone up uh
3x 4x 5x since that time either and so we’re in this uh kind of pickle in my opinion when it comes to real estate that’s going to put us at jeopardy of um either the market starting to just completely flatline or start going down and i think we’re gonna have one of those two situations transpire in the real estate market and this is another thing that breeds fear
Into the stock market right and housing is such a massive sector and i think it’s um i think it’s honestly way under respect the housing sector alone it produces millions of do either direct or indirect jobs the real estate industry right and also it’s the biggest it’s the biggest thing when it comes to consumer confidence out there and if people start to see oh
Boy real estate’s starting to drop the start in the summer and um you know let’s say sellers start to get desperate and the buyers just aren’t there to pick up those properties we could end up in a real pickle and when it comes to buyers sometimes buyers want to buy a property right but if mortgage rates just keep going up they can’t afford it right there’s already
A ton of people that have been priced out of this real estate market as it is right with the fact that homes have gone to insane prices but then if you add on top mortgage rates going to six percent seven percent we’re already well over five percent on a third a year now to think it can’t go much higher especially when you look at 10-year treasury yields which
We’re about to look at here in just a moment you know it’s very very possible that that you know we could be a six percent plus at some point this summer and that’s just a scary thought to think about when you’re already in an insanely kind of overpriced real estate market as is that’s just gone insane right so this is 10-year treasury yields it then sometimes
I just stay up late at night and i think to myself i think wouldn’t it be amazing if you could buy art pieces right like like high-end art pieces that appreciate great over time like the billionaires and the multi-millionaires do right and then i think to myself oh my gosh like a lot of these uh famous art pieces are 5 million dollars 10 million dollars sometimes
Even a lot more and then i think wouldn’t it be cool if kind of like a stock you don’t have to buy the entire company you could buy like a piece of that right and own a piece of that artwork in if and when it sells you could get uh and appreciate it you could make a bunch of money off that wouldn’t it be amazing then you could kind of be like the billionaires and
The multi-millionaires right and i think that would be cool if only there was a service that allowed folks to do that wouldn’t that be big and that is where today’s sponsor masterworks comes in check out the first link in the description also be the pinned comment down there to skip the wait list for masterworks which will allow you to buy ownership in art pieces
That you choose to do so and potentially sell them on the secondary market and get that appreciation that these great art pieces have over time so make sure you check out first link in the description pin comment down there check out masterworks and skip the wait list enjoy that the yield’s been spiking insane this is this month okay the month of april yields are
Up 25 plus that’s ridiculous okay ridiculous that doesn’t usually happen you know for 25 percent like i i that’s one of those sorts of numbers that’s hard for me to even fathom like how insane that is okay but the reason uh you know the ten years spiking like this is people just don’t want to own the tenure and why would you not want to own the tenure right now
Right well essentially you’re looking at inflation of eight percent or whatever right now right meanwhile you can only get two percent on a ten year right and so you’re like okay inflation’s eight percent i only get two percent here well shoot uh i i you know that’s not going to cut the mustard right that’s like like i’m gonna my doubt my dollars are getting get
Diluted so much and so if you’re looking at like at a perfect world if inflation’s at like two percent then the tenure would be at about two percent as well or just slightly above two percent right so which means over the next 10 years as long as inflation is around that range you your your dollar would lose value in that right it would hold its value but right now
Treasury yields are spiking now the interesting part of this is i think the most interesting part that no one’s talking about is where is all that money going it’s not going in the stock market it’s very very clear about that the stock market’s having a disastrous month so people are pulling out the 10-year right but they’re not really putting that money anywhere
They’re not right and so if anything they’re going to cash so what i think’s going on is i think a lot of big money wall street money is maybe prepping up for a disastrous situation where all assets drop and they actually don’t want to put money in the market right now and that’s despite being a lot of good deals in the market right now i feel like there’s a lot
Of great deals but i think investors right now are looking at and they’re like i would actually rather just not be invested in anything right now and just build cash reserves right now which i think is very very telling in this market and um you know that because usually if you saw a situation like this where the 10 years going insane as far as the yield percentage
And people are selling off the 10 years so which is spiking the yield higher you would think the market you think like oh they’re plugging that money in stocks and they’re just not plugging that money in stocks so i think that’s that’s uh very very interesting let’s just put it like that that’s very very interesting what’s going on there and mortgage rates move on
The 10-year okay so now let’s talk about some critical levels that are starting to be hit here essentially okay so recently here and thanks for brian for sending this over um we’re back in the bear market on the russell that’s iwm we’re back in a bear market now in the nasdaq okay now this is very very key and the reason this is very very key is this is the second
Time this has happened now in the past two months okay we had climbed out of bear market on the nasdaq in the russell and it was looking like we were up up and away and it was like okay we climbed out of that okay now that we hit this a second time it’s much more of a feeling to the market of like okay it’s serious this time okay it’s serious like that first time
It was just kind of child’s play and the first time we went down to about 22 on the nasdaq and the russell was down about 23 and at the lows there um you know we get a rough week next week we’ll we’ll blow through that now the important part of this is is if you go back and you look at the the the last i would call it major drop outside of obviously the the rona
Crash which was its own kind of thing so the last time we had a more normalist drop in the market it was followed 2018 a very very vicious market that obviously i took and some of you guys watched this video it was nasty and essentially russell fell at the peak there about 27 nasdaq was down about 23 and a half percent but what you’re going to notice is all the
Indexes ended up hitting basically bear market by the end of it which bear market is 20 down okay and so if you’re thinking about this and the next leg lower that would be a situation where the the uh the dow and the s p 500 also go down to over 20 percent down or around 20 down and it’s very much a possibility and if right now it feels like the market kind of is
In no man’s land to be quite honest until we can get these babies down to 20 percent and so what you’re going to need to get them these babies down 20 is you’re going to need energy start to fall you’re going to need um you know oil prices gas prices start to fall maybe based upon recession fears that could be something that leads those lower and you would also
Need uh more of a flight to cash more worries about recession so even people start pulling out some money out of some quote unquote safety stocks and the last part you need is um apple and nvidia to report some troubling numbers somewhere in there and their stocks to go down that would give the whole market a very very like deflating feeling if that essentially
Happened okay now if you tack on google and amazon not being great numbers either that that would be the the kind of the knife in the back situation where we would end up where the you know the s p 500 the dow could potentially fall down to that 20 percent number if not lower than 20 down okay so that could happen within the next few weeks now the market can be
Saved and we won’t go into bear market if apples comes in with some sort of a plus quarter again like they did last quarter where you just can’t see anything bad about and they blow numbers out of the water but if they don’t come in with that a plus quarter that baby’s going down nvidia is a massive risk to the market i’m trying to tell people this right now um you
Know that’s one of those if it doesn’t come in with an a plus quarter plus guidance it can’t just be about the last quarter it’s got to be about the guide then that baby’s falling and so tesla came in with that a plus quarter it was perfection they blew revenue out of the water they blew margins out of the water they blew eps out of the water nvidia and apple got
To do the same thing now and if they don’t do that same thing in this sort of market they will go down and they will bring the entire market down okay and so that’s something very very important and it’s very very key levels that would just hit and it’s very very serious now that’s happened a second time okay it’s kind of like um you know as a parent you speak to
Your kid you know you tell them to do something um you know you’re like hey do this and they don’t do it and then you gotta tell them a second time and it’s a lot more serious right uh and they kind of know boy this is serious now the same thing in the stock market where this is the second time now we’ve gone into bear market so it’s like oh uh it’s for real this
Is like real serious right uh i put together this this watch list this is either stocks i own or i’m considering owning at some point in 2022 most of these i don’t own as of right now but they’re definitely considerations for me to own and um it’s amazing this all these stocks are down 60 or more just since 2021 highs right and all these stocks here and obviously
There’s like literally hundreds if not thousands of stocks that are down 60 plus but these are just the ones that either i own or i’m thinking about owning at some point this year and so if you want to check out that watch list there you know there it is for you okay but the last thing i want to speak about in this video is like why do i keep buying in this sort
Of market especially if we’re talking about the potential the real potential and possibility of uh s p 500 also going into bear market in the dow going to bear market over the let’s say the next month or two right so for me um if i see great deals in the market i have to take advantage of those deals in the market and not try to say okay well we might fall again
Next month or we might follow you know more this month or we might go into bear market here and things like that my job is i just try to keep it simple like do i see great deals out there and i buy those deals on a monthly basis right and i’ve been sticking to this plan since i started the market in 0.809 and this is what i just always keep regardless if it’s
A bull market bear market stagnating market anything like that i do the kind of the same exact thing and i can’t i can’t look at a stock right and see it being what i feel is a tremendous value and i think it’s a stock that’s going to double up triple up quadruple up over the next five years i can’t just sit there and say well it could go lower um and it’s very
Easy to say that in a bear market right when everything is going down it’s very very easy to say well it could go lower because that’s just what you consistently get but you can’t kind of you can’t hope that that continues to happen and you know i look at a lot of stocks valuations and they’re already so unsustainably low and so ridiculously low that i’m just like
I gotta take advantage of these deals right and i’ll give you a good example you know if we go back to the end of 2020 beginning of 2021 when there’s countless stocks trading at ridiculous valuations right you couldn’t count on those stocks continuing that trajectory right you you knew it was a matter of time before those stocks came down and came down in a massive
Way because they were at unsustainably high levels and so there was a time period i looked at and obviously i was putting money into some very value stocks at that given moment right like i put a million dollars plus in walgreens stock um i had a ton of money invest in jp morgan stock like really boring stocks for me because at that particular time there was definitely
A lot of the market was very out of touch and there was just a lot of stocks trading at insane valuations well those days are long gone now and now if i look at the market there’s a lot of stocks that are at unsustainably low prices and i think there’s tremendous values left and right out there and i’ve got to take advantage of that and maybe next month i get to
Buy all those same stocks for cheaper and that’s perfectly fine that’s the way it’s been for the last seven months in the market for me every single share i bought in almost every single stock it’s lower now than it was back then and i know hindsight’s perfect to say see i should just wait until now to buy or next month to buy or next year to buy or whatever right
But the other day i keep it simple because otherwise your your mind starts to get very very confused very very fast if you’re just kind of waiting waiting waiting and then you’re like oh maybe now is the bottom and then you jump in and then it keeps going down you’re like oh crap i need to get back out and you just it’s it’s for me personally it’s not the game i
Like to play i stick to my plan and i execute that plan and i execute that plan and uh that’s something i learned in sports a long time ago like you know the best teams they they come in with a plan and they execute that plan to the best of their abilities and if you know they go down a touchdown or something like that they don’t panic and freak out and uh you
Know they stick with that plan they they do what works for them and every once in a while you’re going to take some l’s and that’s perfectly fine you’re not going to win them all but you just got to stick to the plan execute and do that thing and that’s exactly kind of what i do so that’s my personal philosophy it doesn’t have to be everybody’s but that’s that’s
What i like to do and that’s what i’ve been doing for a long time that’s what i plan to continue to do for as long as i continue to play this game so anyways guys much love is always hope you enjoyed this have a great day
Transcribed from video
Dire Level for Stock Market Just Hit | Look Out By Financial Education
