Economists now say Friday’s CPI Inflation will be worse than expected. The CPI, or Consumer Price Index, that is being released Friday will let us know if inflation is going down or still rising. This video explains how Friday’s CPI numbers will affect your stocks, and also how the Fed might have to change their plan in order to get inflation under control. You will also learn how high inflation is starting to cause a recession.
Hi guys it’s stock curry and the expectations for friday cpi inflation numbers just got worse in today’s video i’m going to explain how that’s going to affect your stocks and how it’s going to change the fed’s plan to fight inflation so let’s get into it before i get into the new cpi expectations i first want to give a quick recap about how inflation is affecting
The economy inflation is causing consumers to spend less and change their shopping habits now this might be good for some companies for example more than half of those surveyed said that the rising meat prices made them curious about trying plant-based food products such as those from tattooed chef and beyond meat so some companies might benefit from this but the
Vast majority are getting hurt because americans are doing things like taking fewer trips to the grocery store spending on generic brands just trying to save money eating out less and eating at home more and even buying in bulk and of course this isn’t just affecting grocery store spending this is affecting spending across the board we’ve already seen companies
Such as amazon apple target walmart all of them reporting reduced spending from consumers and as a result they’ve been all forced to reduce their guidance for the year because consumers just aren’t spending as much money this hasn’t just caused companies to report weak forward guidance it has also resulted in a number of layoffs from some pretty big companies and
The latest round of layoffs comes from stitch fix who is announcing a 15 layoff of their total number of salaried workers or about 330 people shares of stitch fix are now down to 7.78 from a high of 68 the stock is down 85 percent from highs and of course as inflation reaches on and consumers spend less and companies do more and more layoffs things are gonna get
Worse not better worse gasoline prices aren’t helping either gasoline is approaching five dollars a gallon which economists say is the price point at which a recession would be caused just from gasoline prices alone the problem with this high inflation and high prices is that consumers have less and less money to spend meaning they’re not able to go out and spend
Money at all these different companies so that’s already causing earnings to go down it’s already causing companies to do these layoffs and all of this combined the high prices the layoffs the lower earnings all of it will eventually lead to a recession and a survey of chief financial officers shows that most cfos believe the recession will start in the first half
Of 2023 with the dow dropping into bear market territory or about another nine to ten percent from its current price so with all of these things happening and inflation leading us into a recession it’s very very important that the fed raises interest rates in order to get inflation under control because if the fed is unable to get inflation under control that is
Going to cause either hyper inflation meaning the prices get so high we end up in a situation like venezuela or zimbabwe or many of the other countries that dealt with hyperinflation and that’s certainly not a good thing so the fed’s alternate is to just raise interest rates no matter how bad the economy gets and that in turn puts us into a really bad recession
So literally the fed’s options are do nothing allow interest rates to go up and that causes a recession or raise interest rates in order to get inflation under control and that causes a recession the fed’s only two options are recession or recession in one hand if the recession is caused by hyperinflation then the fed has no control over the economy but if the
Fed can cause the recession themselves by raising interest rates then at least the fed has control over the recession and they can lower interest rates in order to get us out of a recession so that’s the point at which the fed is going to go the question is how quickly are they going to raise interest rates now currently the stock market is pricing at a certain
Number of interest rates specifically the stock market is pricing in a 50 basis point rate hike or 0.5 percent rate hike for the next two meetings and then 25 basis point radix or 0.25 rate hikes for the remainder meetings for the rest of the year now if inflation is super high if the current rate hikes the fed is doing is not getting inflation down then the fed
Is going to have to raise interest rates a lot faster than expected and those higher interest rates are going to cause a recession to start sooner and it’s also going to cause a recession to be more severe so we absolutely need to see inflation going down in the cpi now the cpi is the consumer price index and it’s a measure of inflation and now in march the cpi
Topped out it hit its highest level in over 40 years in april the cpi came down a little bit down to 8.3 percent that means inflation rose 8.3 percent year over year in april now maize inflation numbers that come out on friday june 10th which is tomorrow or today depending upon when you’re watching this video those numbers need to come in lower than 8.3 percent
Because if they do that means that inflation is going down and it’s a really good sign that the fed is getting inflation under control and that they can just continue to go on the rate increase plan that they’re currently on which means the stock market is going to breathe a huge sigh of relief and will probably be able to go up for a week or two however if those
Inflation numbers come in the same or higher than where they were in april that means inflation is not going down and it means the fed will most likely have to raise interest rates much faster than expected in order to get inflation under control now if that is the case that is going to cause the stock market to crash hard and fast starting on friday and i know
The stock market’s already down a lot believe me it’s about to go down a whole lot more if inflation doesn’t start getting under control now with the cpi inflation numbers coming out on friday and me recording this video on thursday we don’t know what those numbers are yet so let me show you what analysts are expecting for the numbers before i get into this i just
Want to let you know that up until today analysts were expecting an 8.1 increase meaning we have an 8.1 year-over-year increase may over may which would be a decline from the 8.3 percent in april but now economists are expecting the cpi number to come in at 8.3 percent which is the same as april when that news came out today the stock market absolutely tanked the
Stock market was trading flat all day doing great and then all of a sudden the expectations for the cpi were raised from 8.1 percent to 8.3 percent the stock market panic and sold off over two percent during the day and this is just a little preview of what could happen if the inflation numbers on friday come in at eight point three percent or higher eight point
Three eight point four eight point five any of that is going to cause the stock market to go down on friday and probably continue down for another week or two so today thursday was just a preview of what’s gonna happen if these inflation numbers don’t go down over where they were in april and in case you’re wondering the cpi or consumer price index comes out at
8 30 a.m eastern time on friday or about one hour before the markets open so that’s what to expect for friday when the cpi inflation numbers come out just keep in mind and i don’t know why this is the case i’ve just seen it happen over and over and over again for some reason when the numbers come out pre-market that first hour from 8 30 to 9 30 in the pre market
Before the market’s actually open sometimes the market reacts to the complete opposite of how it ends up reacting throughout the day so for example the market might go down one percent pre-market and then throughout the day it rises and we close up two percent or the exact opposite pre-market goes up one percent and then throughout the day we sell off and we close
Down two percent so don’t trust the pre-market numbers necessarily because the market may not finish in the same way that it starts in the pre-market so just keep that in mind really what you want to look at is the actual number is it higher or lower than 8.3 percent if it’s higher you can expect the market to go down if it’s lower you can expect the market to go
Up also i wanted to let you know that i have a lot of trades planned for tomorrow depending upon which way the market moves so if you want to know what i’m buying and selling friday and you want to get in on my trades and make money with us come join us over the vip discord you can sign up for that get all my trade alerts at stock curry.vip get vip that’s stock
Curry.vip get vip and i will keep you informed and up to date on exactly what our buying is selling in order to take advantage of friday’s volatility also i wanted to remind you to hit the like button and subscribe and if you’re on youtube click the bell icon and click all so that you can get notified when i release my next video i hope you have a lot of success
Trading and i will see you on monday you
Transcribed from video
CPI INFLATION WORSE THAN EXPECTED – How Friday's CPI Numbers Affect Your Stocks – Friday, Jun 10, 22 By Stock Curry – We Profit Day and Night
