Be Very Very Careful | THE MARKET CRASH

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Folks there are certain things going on in the market right now that i just want to um tell everybody be careful of these certain things that we’re going to explain in this video here today and i’m kind of seeing you know i get to see kind of all the vibes of the market and everything that’s going on here and i just want to kind of caution people on a few different

Things going on now at the top here we’re actually going to talk about this stock it’s called wish stock okay i didn’t think i would talk about wish stock on the channel but yeah today we’re talking about this one so it’s a interesting situation first off let me be very clear about their business model i’m not the biggest fan of their business model at all when it

Comes to wish their their business model seems uh strange i just say that their service and everything like that so not the biggest fan of it but it’s interesting because this company has over a billion dollars of cash on their balance sheet and virtually no debt so basically this this this company this business is being their actual underlying business their app

And all those sorts of things is almost being valued at near zero which is quite interesting and that just kind of shows you this market by the way look at the 52-week range in this stock i mean that’s one of the most vicious 52-bit ranges you will ever see on any stock ever in your life that’s absolutely extraordinary and so this is a money losing company not a

Lot of people have uh you know faith i guess you can say in the the business model they do have a new ceo of that company and a lot of folks are hoping you know the new ceo can kind of turn around things but the reason i’m bringing this up is i’m just showing you you know how devastated many of these stocks have been and this is one of those stocks that right now

Is uh the business model is basically being valued at almost nothing now for this company right and this is one of those stocks that i think some short sellers might look at this right and they might say hmm maybe i’ll buy puts on the stock maybe i’ll short the stock right maybe it’s going to zero and i’m just saying this type of situation be very very careful

Of doing something like that the reason being is this stock is down 92 percent almost in the past year 92 and you can in this situation where you’re trying to get these last few lemon squeezes in a stock like this and i understand within this ultra you know fearful market right now we’re in and uh you know no one wanted to own any companies that are seen as like

You know who knows when they’ll make profits which this company would definitely fit that category no one knows if they’ll ever get to profitability and when it is i would i would also caution you on buying puts on a stock like this or or shorting the stock because all it takes is a market to flip you know the russell will also go 5-10 percent and next thing you

Know this stock is going to be obviously uh you know trading much above where it’s at here so when you’re in these sorts of positions you know a year ago you can make a strong argument on why you could short the stock or even six months ago but i think today because the valuation has gotten so insanely low now i think it’s actually a tough short and i’m not even a

Fan of their business model but i just think it’s a tough short so watch out for for kind of thinking oh yeah this looks like an easy short look at how much money you could have made in this yeah you’re a little late to the game in some of these stocks okay next thing i want to talk about is crude oil a lot of folks are looking at oil right now and they’re saying

Hey man money to be made in oil stocks right now in in oil in general so i want to start playing oil right oil has not been this high since 2014 when it comes to the good old wti the past year 58 plus move i mean that’s that’s insane crude oil has been on a tear in this russia situation just adding fuel to the fire no pun intended there and so a lot of folks are

Looking at this and saying hmm i’m thinking about playing oil stocks or or just directly playing oil in general right i would also caution you everything’s lining up for oil to do really well with the russia situation with us going into spring then into summer uh more global travel opening back up so everything’s looking pretty good for oil but there’s one thing

We know about oil is it rallies and then it has some vicious down cycles and why does it usually have vicious down cycles well the majority of time is because if oil prices go really high everybody that’s everybody wants to start drilling for oil you know why because it’s super profitable so if you if you’re a company as a driller guess what in oil prices are

Really high you want to drill drill drill as much as possible and so you’re gonna you’re gonna start up the rigs left and right right and so if we look at the underlying data well it’s very important to look at the underlying data that’s going on what we’re gonna find is rig counts just jump to a four year high and here’s the thing as long as oil stays uh you

Know above eighty dollars but even above seventy dollars but specifically above eighty dollars get ready for all you know rig count to just explode over the next several months essentially oil rigs are going to go and it’s going to set oil up in a position where because there’s going to be so much drilling going on that the next thing you know olson oil is going

To start falling again oil is a 100 of us you know supply and demand game essentially and when rig counts go really high oil price comes down when rig counts are really low and then also you get in a situation where the global economy is starting to open up again right you got russia and that whole situation basically making oil prices go up wow it’s beautiful for

Oil prices but next thing you know all these oil rigs gonna do and guess what opec’s not gonna want to lose market share opec hates losing losing market share opec loves to make money but the thing with opec you got to understand okay in the middle east oh my gosh their their cost base you know like like what it takes for them to uh make money on drilling for oil

Is like like pennies on the dollar compared to what it what it is in the states so what i’ve learned is is opec can usually drill as long as oil is like above 30 opec can make a fortune on oil at 70 80 90 they’re making so much money it’s ridiculous but they don’t like to lose market share and especially lose market share to the u.s so u.s oil rigs are going to

Go crazy over the coming months and essentially we’re going to be in the situation where opec’s not going to lose market share so they could definitely increase production because we’ve seen it time and time again where they do not they do not want to lose market share to the us and so next thing you know if also u.s is drilling like crazy because there’s so much

Money to be made and then you’ve got opec drilling like crazy uh you also end up in a market share battle and guess what happens to pricing and so that’s why in this situation right you might not even see the the drillers or just um even exploration companies necessarily do amazing in this sort of uh market because everybody’s going to be looking at and they’re

Like yeah a lot of money be made in oil right now but what about three months from now six months from now nine months from now now certain traders might look at that and say you know what i can play that i’ll be able to get out before the big drop happens right and and some will say that others are looking at that and they’re like man am i really going to be able

To get out in time in this situation and that’s a that’s a big risk and if this russia situation ever calms down which eventually will calm down it’s not going to calm down right now but eventually it’s going to you know that would be a bad thing for oil prices there okay so i would just kind of caution people understand oil is a supply and demand game and the

Supply believe me with this much money to be made rig counts are about to go to the moon okay and we could end up seeing rig counts among the highest we’ve ever seen in the us in an opec site we’re not losing market share baby we’re coming in to make some of that money too okay so that’s next thing i want to caution folks on next thing i want to caution folks on

Is uh two things okay you have periods of extreme excitement in the market and optimism euphoria definitely saw that you know a little over a year ago in the market right and that you definitely need to be very very careful in those sorts of markets now the other situation we have which is the market right now is periods of extreme fear right and we have so much

Fear in the market that the russia situation has taken the the the attention away from all the other fear we had before it was a fed inflation uh you know possibility of recession all these sorts of things right i mean you’ve the markets had everything thrown at it the last two or three months like literally everything thrown at it the last two or three months and

Whatever sticks is whatever sticks and right now now it’s the russia thing okay now what do we know about times of extreme fear well one thing is generally speaking it’s a bad time to sell in periods of extreme fear and we are definitely an extreme fear market look at the vix effects gone beast but not only that look at the russell russells and bear market not only

That uh look at everywhere you go on mainstream media it’s it’s negative stuff everywhere there’s nothing positive out there right now okay i would call us in a period of extreme fear right now right so we’re in this period of extreme fear and there’s two things we know about periods of extreme fear selling is usually a bad idea right and trying to get in now but

Not only that it’s usually the best time to buy every single time period throughout history where there was extreme fear it was a huge buying opportunity right and if you look out there right now there’s no good news there’s no glimmers of hope in anything and so we’re in this extreme fear market and generally speaking that’s a good time to buy stocks and not sell

Stock but when you have this going on you know a lot of folks like to make these these short-term decisions and say you know what i’m going to get out and i’m going to try to get back in in three months from now or six months from now or nine months from now or 12 months from now or at some point in 2023 and you just got to understand at the end of the day when

You see a lot of fear in the market you got to understand it’s time to buy stocks and uh you know usually selling is a bad idea even if you can make a little money because you flipped out the tough thing is when do you get back in and some people try to get back in and next thing you know they get back in and then drops more and then they sell for another loss and

They’re like oh i guess i won’t get back in the next time they wait too long get back in the market’s already started to go up rapidly right and so keep in mind if you’re in extreme fear it’s usually actually not it’s not usually it’s always a buying opportunity every single time throughout history okay this next thing next thing i want to caution people on oh

My gosh okay tell somebody i’ve seen some folks out there talking about shorting tesla right okay so first off shorting tesla let’s talk about that game ask almost everybody who’s ever bet against tesla they lose okay and i understand it’s an attractive stock to try to short right and try to slay the dragon that is tesla like and try to when i shorted tesla guys

Oh my gosh okay you know there’s been so many uh what would be considered very smart individuals right that have so much data that have tried to short the stock and lost fortunes i’m talking hundreds of millions of dollars billions of dollars you think you understand is don’t bet against elon musk okay don’t bet again against elon musk don’t bet against tesla

I don’t care even if you feel there’s a recession or anything like that right or there’s going to be a lot more fear in the market or you feel like tesla’s going to go back down to 52 with those even if that’s a strong feeling you still don’t short this stock it’s just not one of those stocks you can short i can understand if people want to if they hold the stock

If they wanted to cash some shares okay fair play but as far as shorting that’s a whole different deal and when it comes to shorting the stock you understand most folks that are in tesla don’t give a rat’s crap about any of the short-term stuff going on whatever is you know russia fed inflation all that stuff people are you know most of the investor base in this

Stock is in this for the next five ten years and in this because they believe this is going to be the by far and away the number one ev player in the world which is massive and the whole world’s going evs and so never mind that you talk about the the robotics opportunity for this company you talk about the robo taxi network opportunity for this company and all the

Other things that business mall is going to have over time and i can tell you this is uh the ultimate dangerous play if you ever want to short tesla and i understand it trades at a high p now i understand trades at a high price of sales ratio but it always does and it doesn’t mean like oh it trades at a you know high ratio so it’s going to it’s gonna go down it’s

Gonna you know it’s just trust me man there’s been so many very very intelligent people a lot smarter than anybody you know uh out there and those folks what do they do they lose and they lose and lose and keep this in mind right what did we just talk about oil prices are going through the roof right now right which means every single person that drives a internal

Combustion engine is going to the gas station right now and will over the next few months and they’re going to see sky-high gasoline prices you know three uh three dollars a gallon might be in the cheaper markets but really they’re going to be seeing four dollars a gallon five dollars a gallon i’ve heard some markets seeing six that’s insane okay and every single

Person that doesn’t own an eevee is going to be looking and thinking man i would love to own ev because i’m having to spend twice as much as i was spending on gas at this time last year or three times as much or whatever right and so if there wasn’t already enough of a boom cycle for evs and how many people are considering evs by the way make sure to subscribe

The channel if you’re not already subscribed it’s absolutely free to do so and also we got the massive uh basically valentine’s day seal that’s ending here in the next couple hours for the private stock group financial fortress looking at everything i look for in stocks how i value companies all those sorts of things uh if you want to access that plus a discord

Chat that deals on right now but essentially all these folks are looking at this and they’re like oil prices are going insane every time i got a pump gas it’s it’s an insane price and folks are going to consider man i think i might get an ev right and there was there’s already such a boom cycle for evs it’s insane this is just adding more fuel to the fire no pun

Intended in this situation right next thing i want to talk about is a russell 2000 so russell 2000 recently has been around bear market territory which means it’s down 20 from its uh you know 52 week high all right so being that the russell’s been flirting right around bear market recently a lot of folks are looking at this and like well how much longer does this

Last and what we do know about the russell okay outside of a major major colossal multi-year recession the russell goes through time periods where it’s a two to six month time period and i’ve looked over the past 10 plus years at the russell and i i watched it you know go down you know i looked at the chart over the past you know 10 plus years and what we can find

Essentially is a russell will will go down 10 plus percent several different times over the 10 past 10 plus years and what we find is though the bottom is usually hit anywhere from two months to six months after okay so meaning essentially if if the market goes down so for instance right here you know market uh this is november 4th right around there is when the uh

The russell hit a 52-week high 2458 was a 52-week high now it’s trading right around 2000 roughly even even when uh you know below 2000 recently right down 1900 or so and so what we know about this situation is there’s a high probability we’re somewhere in the bottoming out process right now if we didn’t already hit a bottom the only way you can really get things

Down uh substantially more is adding a ton more fear to the market and that’s a really really tough thing to do because we’re at such max fear right now it’s hard to get uh much more fear in the market than we already have and so it’s very possible we could have already bottomed on this and like i said we’re already you know three four months into this drop and

Every single drop we’ve had in the russell that’s 10 plus percent over the past 10 plus years it bottomed out within two to six months okay so if you’re thinking the russell’s gonna downtrend for a year or two the only way that happens if you get a colossal and i mean a colossal recession out of that outside of that good luck okay so next next thing you know don’t

Buy into the whole small caps have you know are in bear market so which means they’re just going to continue to do bad because that’s just not how it usually works uh when it comes to chef i was looking at this one today you know interesting day right volatility through the roof a lot of fear out there in the market i mean a lot of fear out there in the market

And what do we see the chef the chef is green today the chef is green today and you’re just running out of sellers in these stocks you’ve exhausted the sellers in these stocks every week hand that’s in the stock is out of these dang stocks already let me look at the volume it’s it’s pathetic 574 thousand shares traded hands when the vix was 32 today or whatever

It was right sky high vix average volume is 1.2 mil and this trade half its volume you just can’t find sellers any stocks anymore you just can’t find sellers and here is a you know a red day in the markets across the board and the chef finishes green and when it comes to stock like this and i don’t think this is what a lot of shorts understand or a lot of folks

In general you know i hear it sometimes like well what if it drops on earnings what if it goes to ten nine whatever who cares i’ll buy more shares like for us that are long-term investors we don’t care about any of this we don’t care about any other short-term stuff the chef’s gonna be a 50-plus dollar stock in a few years from now i don’t care if it goes to 10

Or to 14 or to 9 or 22. it doesn’t matter to me in the end and for most folks that are in the stock we don’t care the russia situation inflation the fed who cares all we know is a chef’s going to grow massively regardless i don’t care if there’s a recession the chef’s still going to grow massively and i put my words behind that and it will and i is no doubt in

My mind they will continue to grow they continue to take market share no matter what happens literally it doesn’t matter what and so i’m in a situation where you know um it’s just getting so much harder to shake people out of stocks now because the folks that have been shaken out they’ve already been shaken out and us that are in these stocks are like who cares

Send it down i’ll buy more shares and i’ll increase my ownership position of this company it’s going to 50 plus over the coming years i don’t care and that’s just our view on it and that’s going to continue to be my view and you know it’s like the shorts can say whatever they want and oh you got to be scared didn’t you see what happened in russia didn’t you see

Inflation don’t you know the fed’s going to raise rates 600 times this year who cares man all i know is a chef’s going to be a massive money maker over the next five 10 years and you know if other people want to sell me their shares for cheap i’ll continue to take those shares and for us sarah longs will end up prospering long term as long as the company continues

To execute with the fundamentals and grows this company like a beast like it should and based upon what i see boots on the ground they’re doing nothing but executing on a very high level and uh you know so so that’s my opinion on that it’s sad to see that that so many people have gotten shaken out of these stocks but it’s what ends up happening in these sorts of

Markets and only the strong survive and um you know the ones that hold through are the ones that end up prospering and the ones that go the wayside end up not getting the gains and that’s just how it is and it’s been consistently like that throughout time and it will continue to be like that so that’s that story guys hope you enjoyed this as always don’t forget

That massive deal it’s ending in the next couple hours here so if you want to you know access that and take advantage before it ends check out pinned comment down there also make sure you subscribe the channel if you’re not already much love as always and have a great day leave me a funny comment something funny peace

Transcribed from video
Be Very Very Careful | THE MARKET CRASH By Financial Education