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Well ladies and gentlemen less than an hour ago we just got concrete proof that this generation of iphones is selling very very weak we’ve had a lot of rumors about the iphone could be selling weak but we just got our first concrete proof evidence that the iphone is a hundred percent this generation of iphones is a hundred percent selling pretty weak okay so we
Started getting some hints around this about a month ago or so when apple said it’s gonna stop reporting how many iphones ipads in max it sells each quarter okay i think that’s a good business decision for apple long-term i think that’s a good decision but the way a lot of people looked at it is is definitely you know apple’s trying to hide the iphone numbers
And what not and they just took the way the ipad and mac numbers as well because that’s a that’s a good decision so they don’t have to show those numbers and whatnot anymore alright so that was the first hint that well if i phone numbers were super strong why go ahead and take them away okay so that was kind of like the first hint we got that wait a minute iphone
Numbers might be actually very very weak going into 2019 okay then we had a report come out on november 19th that said apple reportedly cuts iphone 10s and 10 our production orders amid lower than expected demand in recent weeks apple slashed its production orders for its latest iphone 10s and 10’s max as well as the 10r models due to lower than expected demand
Among other reasons according to unnamed sources cited by the wall street journal all right now between app will go and ahead and decide they’re not going to disclose iphone numbers anymore and in this report it was looking like there there’s there’s something going on there there must be pretty weak 2min but at the same time there’s still nothing concrete that’s
Somebody saying oh yes for sure it’s just like oh some unnamed sources said things might be a little weak and oh i you know apples take an iphone you can start putting pieces together but at the same time we still didn’t have any concrete proof okay just report went on to say the production cuts are said to have reignited frustration among iphone suppliers and
Raised worries that apple’s ability to forecast demand is very poor all right now at the same time a lot of people said iphone 10 was failure a flop a lot of people were saying that there were a lot of reports around that okay but then what ended up happening i phone at iphone 10 ended up being this top-selling iphone ever in history okay and end up being by far and
Away the top-selling phone out there in the world so just so just so you guys know like if apple sales aren’t aren’t up to par okay it’s not necessarily there they’re doing bad and somebody else is taking market share sometimes it’s just because demand is weak across the board in the high-end smartphone market which is a lot of what we’re seeing right now okay no
If we go ahead and look also on the apple website we’re gonna see the iphone 10 or you can get one of those today okay so there’s there’s obviously not like crazy demand for that device all right although i do believe that’s gonna be the top-selling iphone in this model i’ve said that many times and i think it will be proved right that that would be the top selling
Volume number for iphones we’ll never know because apple doesn’t even show their numbers anymore and then if you go to the iphone 10s you can get one of those tomorrow you know one of those today if you want you can go down and pick up one of those at the store so obviously demands not crazy for that even the 10s max which is the one that a lot of people on the
High-end space want right that one literally you can go get it today at any apple store you possibly want okay so needless to say you start putting all these pieces together and it looks like there’s definitely some weakness and iphone demand but we still never had something specific concrete now apple stock today was up around three and a half percent it had a
Very very good day today but denÃlson it started to weaken in after market was down around 1% after market and so i’m editing a lesson i was posted in my private stock market membership group today i’m editing this lesson also i get text from a friend who says hey have you seen crew stock after hours which is one of my investments is one of many investments i
Have and he’s like is down big after hours i’m like no i haven’t seen crews after hours i’m like why is it randomly down on december 3rd or 4th or whatever today like cruz isn’t announcing earnings apple’s not announcing earnings like there should be there’s no big news out there why would cruz be down big and i go ahead on my stock tracker app and i look and i’m
Like ok cruz is down 6 percent after hours and immediately as soon as i saw it was down 6 percent i was like i know what happened like they had to a went ahead and revised guidance down and sure enough that is exactly what they came out and did here after hours okay so cirrus logic they went ahead and took their guidance from around three hundred and sixty million
To four hundred million to now three hundred million to three hundred and forty million so quite a steep decline cirrus logic did their just to kind of get those numbers out there and the three sixty to four hundred that was not like it was some kind of super high numbers that they might hit or something like that and then cirrus logic specifically says in the
Report due to recent weakness in the smartphone market so all the hints we got made all proved right this was a first concrete evidence we got that that you know apple iphone numbers are weak now if you’re wondering you know who’s just a cirrus logic company why is this so impactful well the first thing you got to understand is cirrus logic gets eighty to ninety
Percent of their current revenue in this quarter in right now from apple cirrus logic is expected to diversify a bit starting in the springtime because they should get samsung back as a full-time customer sometime this spring but needless to say like right now this quarter ran and even most of next quarter these are apple number quarters okay so anything cirrus
Logic pretty much has coming in the door is apple a cirrus logic has many other customers but their other customers are so insignificant because they have so many different chips in the iphones in iphones just sell so well okay so needless to say like it’s not a question of maybe someone else that you know maybe some of other cirrus logic cuts know like the cirrus
Logic did solve their revenue pretty much survive from apple at least in this court or in right now okay so cirrus logic and the fact that they bring down their numbers the midpoint goes to 320 million from 380 million so basically that’s around an eighteen percent plus decline in what they were expected there okay so that’s something that’s a big big decline in
Revenue there though so the production cuts by apple is definitely pretty significant needless to say okay so what does all this mean what does all this mean this means a few things all right the first thing is expect apple to lower guidance sometime soon or they’re gonna miss pretty decently on their earnings especially on the revenue side i can almost guarantee
You the apple maybe within the next few at some point we’ll probably come out and they’re gonna end up lowering their guidance as well if they don’t lower their guidance and they decide to just wait till earnings to come out with the numbers there they shouldn’t have a pretty decent beat unless analysts in the meantime bring down all their numbers substantially
For apple and then maybe they could come in line but based upon the numbers right now and especially based upon the numbers they’ve been the past month for what they should be hitting in this upcoming quarter like there’s no way they would have hit those numbers they had so expect a pretty decent mess from apple or that probably a lower guidance coming out pretty
Soon okay number two thing to expect is expect other big apple suppliers to guide down or miss pretty bad over the next you know a month or two i would expect some more apple suppliers to come in line like cirrus logic and say hey you know we’re not gonna hit our numbers where we’re bringing down guidance or what not if a lot of these big apple suppliers which in
The semiconductor space there are a lot of companies that you know get 30 40 50 maybe 60 plus percent of their revenue from apple expect a lot of those companies to come out and go ahead and bring down their numbers over the next month or so if they don’t a lot of those companies are gonna miss bad on their earnings and you know either way their stocks are gonna
Likely be hit okay number three expect apple stock and big apple suppliers to continue to have weakness for at least the next three to nine months first off here a lot of these apple suppliers semiconductors in general they’ve been hit by the chinese situation with the tariffs and whatnot they’ve also been hit by the fact that’s the high-end of the smartphone market
It’s just unbelievably weak right now in terms of it’s just really hard to get consumers excited and like i said there will not be excitement in the smartphone market until 5g comes out we’re looking at still probably at least a year if not two years from 5g that will be the next you know super cycle and iphones and samsung’s and all the high-end but as of right
Now that’s just it’s just dead out there in the high-end smartphone market okay so expect that we’re still weakness in apple stock for quite a while at least the next three to nine months and expect the the suppliers of apple to continue to have you know weak stock prices for the next three to nine months but like i said a lot of these talks have been destroyed
So bad already that at least you know some of that some of those losses have already been taken because you know we’ve had the it’s that you know demand could be weak out there and number four the only good news about this is it’s just great news if you’re a long-term buyer of apple stock or if you’re a long-term buyer of any of the apple suppliers out there the
Semiconductor companies and you want to build big positions or you want to build bigger positions you might have like a lot of the apple suppliers i’ve just started adding over the less light or no six to nine months like cirrus logic and skyworks solutions i’ve been starting to buy those stocks over the last you know six to nine months or so and i want to continue
To buy those because i believe they have great long-term futures but here in the short term there’s all this all they can’t grow because of iphone but as 5g comes out that should just be major major growth vectors and whatnot you know those different companies and in the audio and voice explosions specifically for cirrus logic so if your long-term buyer it’s good
News and also a lot of these companies have big buybacks on so if you’re looking at as a long term perspective would you rather have these companies buy let you know apple is a perfect example would you rather have apple buy back shares at two hundred and fifty dollars or a hundred and fifty dollars obviously if you’re in the stock for the long term the next five
Ten fifteen years you’d much rather to have them buy a ton of shares back at 150 rather than have to buy way up at 250 or something like that so if you’re a long-term investor in these type of companies of apple you know or you know apple suppliers out there and whatnot it should be some great entry points there’s already great entry points as of right now but over
The next three to nine months we should continue to be able to buy for cheap prices before the next super cycle comes like i said not sure it will come next year because i’m not sure 5g will quite be ready it could be the the following year so we’ll just have to wait on all that but at least in the short term you know it’s not good the demand that that’s the first
Concrete proof we got that iphone demand is weak for this cycle of iphones guys so anyways let me know what your opinion is down there in the comment section what is your favorite semiconductor stock out there would love to hear from you guys do you like any of the apple suppliers long-term any of those semi plays do like apple stock long-term i really want to
Hear from you guys in that comment section on this thank you for watching and have a great day
Transcribed from video
APPLE IPHONES SELLING POORLY 100% CONFIRMED By Financial Education